Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday said that some political pundits still don’t get that personal chemistry goes beyond caste arithmetic and that the Lok Sabha election results came as a perfect example of how it worked. He was referring to the massive success the BJP registered in Uttar Pradesh despite the formation of the SP-BSP alliance which was done purely keeping caste arithmetic in mind. In 2014, the BJP-led NDA had swept the state by winning 73 out of 80 seats. The SP won five, while BSP could not open its account. However, both the parties together had got 41.80 per cent vote share.
This time, Mayawati and Akhilesh tried to consolidate the votes of their core constituents by fighting the polls together in Uttar Pradesh. But they failed in inflicting any significant damage to the BJP as it won 62 out of 78 seats it contested with 49.6 per cent vote share. The BSP, however, increased its tally from zero in 2014 to 10 seats with over 19 per cent votes, almost same it got in the last election. The SP won 5 seats but its vote share dropped from 22.20 per cent in 2014 to 17.96 per cent in 2019. As per 2011 Census, Muslims are 19 per cent of the total population and Dalits 21 per cent in UP. The number of Yadavs is somewhere between 9-10 per cent.
It was expected that the SP-BSP alliance would cost at least 40 seats to the BJP in UP. And this figure came after an analysis of Muslim-Yadav-Dalit (MYD) population in the state. Survey agency C-Voter identified 47 Lok Sabha seats in UP where MYD population is higher than 50 per cent. The agency also found that every seat in the state has more than 40 per cent MYD population.
Out of 47, ten constituencies — Azamgarh, Ambedkar Nagar, Bhadohi, Bijnor, Domariyaganj, Ghosi, Firozabad, Sitapur, Jaunpur, and Mohanlalganj — have more than 60 per cent MYD population. Yet the BJP won five of these seats, busting the myth of caste-based voting. The saffron party won Bhadohi, Domariyaganj, Firozabad, Sitapur, and Mohanlalganj.
Gandhi bastions Amethi, Raebareli and SP stronghold Mainpuri have MYD population between 50 to 60 per cent. But the BJP even defeated Rahul Gandhi from Amethi. The rest of the 33 seats have MYD population between 40 to 50 per cent and the BJP won a significant number of seats from these constituencies. This suggests that the BJP has broken the caste barriers and made a serious dent in what its arch-rivals considered their strongholds.
The historic mandate for the BJP proves that the people from every section of the society irrespective of their castes have voted for Narendra Modi. Many are attributing this phenomenal success of the saffron party to some of the welfare schemes initiated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi that reached the poorest of poor irrespective of their caste or religion. National General Secretary Bhupendra Yadav says that one cannot do ‘sabka saath sabka vikas’ by ignoring any particular section or caste. “The BJP’s sole aim is to move forward by taking along all sections of society,” Yadav who is in-charge for Bihar and Gujarat told The Indian Express.
Explaining why Yadav-centric politics by SP and RJD failed in the recent polls, Bhupendra Yadav said that the families of Mulayam and Lalu Prasad had become symbols of feudalism. He said that both the parties crushed the spirit of justice for backwards and the poor advocated by Dr Ram Manohar Lohia. “…Sabka saath-sabka vikas is aimed at everyone’s all-around development…and any caste cannot remain a permanent slave or vote bank of one particular party,” the BJP leader said.
Yadav further said that his party’s organisational base expanded after 2014. He said BJP president Amit Shah went on organisational tours for at least three days in each state and developed a mechanism to connect with the poor through these 10 crore party members.
Bhupendra also informed that the party was divided into several departments and new programmes were started under the leadership of Amit Shah. “…Various such initiatives resulted in BJP forming governments in states like Tripura and Manipur,” the BJP leader said. The BJP-led NDA bagged 353 of 542 seats with over 45 per cent vote share. The saffron party alone got 303 seats, well above the majority mark.