Will UP spring a surprise: Exit polls predict two extremes for Modi-BJP in the state

By: |
Updated: May 19, 2019 11:47:52 PM

Exit Polls 2019: Exits polls for Uttar Pradesh have yielded two stark trends, according to majority of surveys BJP will sweep the state but two surveys projected SP-BSP to be clear winner.

exit poll 2019, exit poll results 2019 india, exit polls 2019, exit poll, election results 2019, nda, ndtv live, exit polls, exit polls, 2019 india latest, republic tv, nda party, opinion poll 2019, 7th phase election 2019, republic tv live, exit poll 2019 latest, 2014 lok sabha results, lok sabha elections exit poll, chanakya exit polls 2019, lok sabha seats, upa, india today exit poll, times now live, exit poll 2019 lok sabha latest, latest opinion poll 2019, exit poll resultsThe BJP, as per various surveys released on Sunday evening, is projected to cross the majority mark of 272 required to form the government in the Centre. (Reuters)

Uttar Pradesh Exit Polls: Despite majority of exit polls predicting a likely return of BJP led NDA government at the centre, it’s not certain as exit polls have failed to project the actual winner or margin of victory in some of the previous elections. In past, exit polls have been successful in projecting the trends correctly, but their projections about the number of seats have also been off the mark. Though most exit polls predict a clear BJP victory, two of them have projected BJP-NDA falling short of a clear majority.

The exit polls conducted ABP News-Nielsen and NewsX-Neta have predicted BJP-NDA falling short of a clear majority of 272 seats. While ABP-News-Nielsen has projected NDA to win 267 seats, just 5 short of a clear majority of 272 seats, its projection about Uttar Pradesh is in stark contrast with the exit poll conducted by others.

ABP-News-Nielsen has projected that the BJP-NDA will win just 22 of total 80 seats in India’s most populous state Uttar Pradesh, a loss of 51 seats. It has also projected SP-BSP-RLD alliance to sweep the state by winning 56 seats, an improvement of 51 seats over its tally in 2014.

READ ALSO: Ground Report: PM Modi still favourite, but party faces dissent of Brahmins, OBCs in Eastern UP

Similarly, another survey conducted by NewsX-Neta has predicted that the BJP-NDA will win 33 of total 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh and it has given 43 seats to SP-BSP-RLD alliance.

India’s most populous state Uttar Pradesh holds the key for formation of government at the Centre. It alone sends 15% or 80 of total 543 members in the Lok Sabha. BJP had bagged 71 of 80 seats in the state in 2014 Lok Sabha election, one fourth of the total 282 seats won by the party nationwide.

If these two projections are correct then the BJP is likely to face challenges in securing a repeat term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. However, five other polls have projected a clear victory for the BJP in this tough battle.

READ ALSO: Why Rahul Gandhi tried to overshadow PM Modi’s maiden press conference

While India Today-My Axis has projected that the BJP will win 62-68 seats in the state, a loss of 3-9 seats, another survey conducted by Times Now-VMR has projected the BJP could win 58 seats in alliance with its partner Apna Dal, a loss of 15 seats in the state.

Similarly, News18-IPSOS surevey has projected the BJP will win 60-62 seats in Uttar Pradesh, while SP-BSP-RLD alliance is expected to win 17-19 seats. According to News24-Chanakya BJP is expected to win 65 seats in the state.

READ ALSO: BJP will not need support outside NDA to form the government: Rajeev Chandrasekhar | Watch Video

However, two different exit polls conducted by Republic TV in partnership with CVoter and Jan Ki Bat have reflected two completely different pictures. While CVoter survey shows that BJP will win 38 seats and Akhilesh-Mayawati will win 40 seats and Congress 2, another survey conducted by Jan Ki Bat for the same media group shows that the BJP will win 46-57 seats, Mahagatbandhan will win 21-32 seats and Congress will win 2-4 seats.

Though most surveys have projected a BJP win in the state, however, a second term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi depends on the actual number of seats to be won by his party in the state, and not the projections made by exit polls.

READ ALSO: Modi clear choice of voters despite Rahul Gandhi’s negative campaign, says Rajeev Chandrasekhar

Get live Stock Prices from BSE and NSE and latest NAV, portfolio of Mutual Funds, calculate your tax by Income Tax Calculator, know market’s Top Gainers, Top Losers & Best Equity Funds. Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Financial Express is now on Telegram. Click here to join our channel and stay updated with the latest Biz news and updates.

Next Stories
1SEBI steps in to de-stress the stressed, but are the measures taken by the regulator good enough?