1. Karnataka election 2018 survey: Will Modi factor decide fate of Siddaramaiah, Yeddyurappa? Opinion poll suggests this

Karnataka election 2018 survey: Will Modi factor decide fate of Siddaramaiah, Yeddyurappa? Opinion poll suggests this

Karnataka election 2018 survey: A number of recent opinion polls have suggested that Karnataka may be headed towards a hung assembly.

By: | New Delhi | Updated: May 3, 2018 4:56 PM
karnataka election opinion poll 2018 Karnataka election survey: Going by numbers of the latest snap polls, and earlier opinion polls, a close contest between Siddaramiah and Yeddyurappa seems inevitable.

Karnataka election 2018 survey: A number of recent opinion polls have predicted Karnataka may be headed towards a hung Assembly. A survey by Times Now-VMR had predicted a neck and neck battle between the BJP and the Congress, with the saffron party winning 89 out of 224 Karnataka Assembly seats and Congress 91. Similarly, the ABP News-Lokniti CSDS opinion poll predicted BJP may win 89-95 seats; Congress: 85-91; and JD(S)+: 32-38. A third opinion poll by India Today and Karvy predicted Congress may end up with 90-91 seats, and BJP 76-86; JD(S) 34-43 seats.

Clearly, all three big surveys have predicted that JD(S) will be the likely kingmaker, though the party claims it would be the king. Interestingly, all these surveys have shown that despite ruling for five years, chief minister Siddaramaiah continues to remain slightly more favoured choice than BJP’s BS Yeddyurappa for the CM post. The latest News X CNX snap poll confirms the same.

The snap poll covered 76 constituencies and 9120 people. Out of them, around 31.33% people consider Siddaramaiah has performed better as the CM in five years. For Yeddyurappa, only 26% respondents said he performed better as the Karnataka CM.

Notably, Yeddyurappa had to resign just after three years, following corruption allegations against him. The charges were not proved in the court. Had he been convicted, Yeddyurappa’s political career would have almost ended. The fact that 26% respondents still consider Yeddyurappa performed better as the CM is in itself very interesting. As many as 31.11% respondents see Siddaramaiah as the next CM, for Yeddyurappa, it is 28.29%.

Modi, decisive factor?

Going by numbers of the latest snap polls, and earlier opinion polls, a close contest between Siddaramiah and Yeddyurappa seems inevitable. There is also not much gap between the popularity of both leaders. However, there are two factors that may work in favour of Yeddyurappa.

First, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity continues to remain high in the state. According to the snap poll, 31.87% respondents rated Modi government’s performance at Centre in the last four years as “very good”, while 20.29% said it has been “good”. Only 21.33% respondents rated Modi government’s popularity as “very poor.” With extensive campaign in the last few days before the polls, BJP may be able to cash in on Modi’s popularity.

Second important factor is corruption. Both BJP and the Congress have something to say against each other on the corruption issue. Congress is hoping it will be finally able to corner the BJP over Yeddyurappa’s alleged corruption and saffron party’s friendship with the Reddy brothers in the Bellari region. However, the snap poll has shown corruption may not be an issue in the upcoming Assembly polls. Only 7.74% respondents said corruption would be an issue in the upcoming polls.

Several other issues that may decide the voting pattern include unemployment, irrigation, development, and law and order. Voters are expected to rate the performance of Siddaramiah and local MLAs.

As many as 42.47% respondents said Siddaramaiah’s performance would be an important factor, 30.73% said the performance of local MLAs will matter. Siddaramaiah government’s biggest worry would be its record on law and order, employment and water availability.

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  1. V
    May 6, 2018 at 8:03 am
    Usually in every state BJP is showing an antidemocratic rule. Public emotion in all BJP ruled states is against BJP goverrnment regardless of the opposition there. But at the time of election BJP will do aggressive campaigning by top leaders especially its veteran leader and star campaigner Modi and he is able to make them vote for BJP successfully. Is the people of our nation so less intelligent that they got brushed away and brainwashed by Modijis speech. Or are they forgetting everything that has happened in the state when BJP is ruling them when they hear modijis speech. If this is the condition government is not bond to rule the state properly. It should just do a powerful campaign just before election and come back to power. Rape favouring mentality , privatisation of public assets and monuments lowering of GDP and creating a huge loss to treasury (3.75 lack crore)and deaths of many people by demonitisation . All are erased from peoples mind just by one week campaigning by BJP
    1. Siva Bandla
      May 4, 2018 at 9:56 am
      no chance of bjp getting more than 60-70 seats . there are of lot of factors which favour congg , like jds is friendly to bjp thriough kcr, 2 Gali who robbed through mining ( more than 2 Lcr Rs )is in bjp now all the cases are slowly going TO air because heard that he is spending more than 40k cr rs to bjp elections and heard that distributing 10k to each voters which will be highest in INDIAN elections .3. yeddi is CM candidate who is corrupt and gone to jail and it is heard he will be thrown out of seat of CM ( IF BJP COMES TO POWER WITH IN 1 YEAR AS HE IS ALREAY 76 YEARS OLD .). more over there is anti in telugus about SCS issue by modi about 5cr s Telugu people min 4 cr will vote to cong only people are against demonitisation and Gst .People understand now MODI IS GUJARAT PM LIKE DEVE GOWDA AS KARNATAKA...ALL THESE FACTORS WILL MAKE CONG TO GET BETWEEN 125-136 MLAS FULL MAJARITY..
      1. Leena Jain
        May 5, 2018 at 1:40 pm
        I don't agree with you Siva. The facts you have presented are not even NEAR to reality. Media is strong enough to bring minute to minute matters before the viewers. No such matters are being discussed on any of prime news channels, not even in newspapers. Further the data discussed in FE article is based on opinion polls that too of 3 diffe opinion polls.
        1. O
          May 9, 2018 at 2:24 pm
          Did you know that there is a businessman who has a hold of 27 media channels/platforms and is a close aide of cur govt ? what you see in most media channels is all manipulated. Go and search about a company called independent media t r u s t please.
      2. V
        May 3, 2018 at 7:30 pm
        What was this snap poll was for? Just some banal questions and expected responses. A waste of my time reading it..

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