Gujarat election exit polls results 2017: If the results of several exit poll surveys are to be taken at face value, Prime Minister Narendra Modi can take a big sigh of relief after leading the BJP in a high-octane campaign. Led by Rahul Gandhi, Congress party left no stone unturned to upset the ruling party – be it stitching up an alliance with young caste leaders like Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakore and Jignesh Mewani. Even on Wednesday, during an interview with CNN-News 18, Rahul asserted that Gujarat would spring a surprise and the Congress will win comfortably. An online survey by the Congress IT Cell had predicted the party will 125 out of 182 seats in the state.
However, most of the Exit poll results today predicted a clear majority for the ruling BJP. Times Now-VMR Exit Poll predicted that BJP will win 109 seats, while the Congress will have to compromise with 70 seats, others may get 0-4 seats. According to Sahara Samay-CNX news BJP is likely to get 110-120 seats, while the Congress may get 65-75 seats. As per Republic TV-C Voter survey, the saffron party may get 115 seats while the Congress is likely to get only 65 seats.
If the final results match what the surveys have predicted, the credit for BJP would solely go to Prime Minister Narendra Modi who took it upon himself, toured across the state extensively, to take on the challenge put up by Rahul Gandhi and a bunch of young leaders.
In an article, Surjeet Bhalla, member of Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council, today analysed the Congress’ chances in Gujarat. “By all accounts, Rahul Gandhi has run a mature political campaign, and one which has constantly emphasised the bad state of the economy. It has been almost explicitly patterned after Bill Clinton’s It is the Economy, Stupid campaign of 1992,” Bhalla wrote while predicting BJP win on the basis of available data. “The median forecast of our various models is that the BJP romps home comfortably with 120-130 seats. Obtaining 150 seats, as BJP president Amit Shah has predicted, has the same non-zero chance as the BJP obtaining less than 100 seats,” he said.
The main plank of Rahul Gandhi’s campaign was the state of economy and jobs in Gujarat. Occasionally he was accused of indulging in soft Hindutva and playing caste politics. However, most of Rahul Gandhi’s speeches remained centred around economic issues like GST, Demonetisation. As per Bhalla, “Even if the BJP wins comfortably (our base-line forecast), the economy is the only weapon that the political opposition has. Demonetisation is now more than a year old, and GST will likely improve in tax collection. RBI expects the economy to recover to 7.8% in the next 3 months. If it does, the opposition will have lost its most potent weapon against PM Modi’s popularity. If it doesn’t, the opposition will remain in Battle 2019 with a fighting chance.”
Earlier, most of the opinion polls had predicted a clear victory for the BJP. However, we will have to wait for the final result on December 18.