2017 seems to be the year of unexpected political twists and turns. First, it was Uttar Pradesh, and now it is Gujarat – the new development in assembly elections are adding new dimensions to election arithmetic. The rise of Patidar, SC and OBC leaders have made the elections interesting this time. For Congress, it’s boss Rahul Gandhi is leading an aggressive poll campaign, while for BJP, PM Narendra Modi has taken the charge. As everyone is keenly waiting for December 18 when the results will be announced, surveying agencies – CSDS, Axis My India, VMR India – have come up with surprising numbers. Let’s see what these surveys predict
Latest ABP-CSDS opinion poll (First week of December)
– Vote Sare: BJP and the Congress will secure equal – 43 per cent – vote share in the upcoming elections.
– This is a sharp dip witnessed in the BJP’s performance when compared to the 2012 State Assembly elections.
– The survey reveals that the BJP’s vote share has dropped by 16 percentage points in just four months.
– In August, Congress had only 29% of the vote-share. This has grown by 14 percentage points in the four months since then.
– Seat Share: BJP is predicted to secure 91-99 seats, while the Congress is expected to follow closely with 78-86 seats.
A previous survey done by ABP-CSDS survey (Second week of November)
– The BJP is projected to secure a majority by bagging 113-121 seats in Gujarat.
– BJP to get a vote share of the saffron party will be 47 per cent.
– Congress is expected to get 58 -64 seats while the vote share of the party will be 41 per cent.
– Vijay Rupani top choice for the minister’s post.
– In Saurashtra, both Congress and BJP in Saurashtra as both look to get 42 per cent of the vote share.
– In North Gujarat, Congress is expected to fetch 49% of votes and it gave the BJP 44% vote share.
– In Central Gujarat, Congress is predicted to get only 38% votes, while the BJP is set to get 54 pct votes.
– In South Gujarat, BJP may well get 51 pct votes, while the vote share of the Congress will be just 33 per cent.
India Today-Axis My India (Last week of October)
– BJP is projected to win between 115-125 seats.
– Congress is projected to bag between 57-65 seats.
– BJP to get 48 per cent vote share.
– Congress to get 38 per cent vote share
Times Now-VMR survey (Last week of October)
– The Times Now-VMR survey predicts around 118-134 seats (52 percent of votes) for BJP
– The survey predicts that Congress could secure around 49-61 seats (37 percent votes).