Gujarat election opinion poll 2017: Gujarat’s support for PM Modi seems to have diminished if we go by the recently released ABP-CSDS opinion poll. As per the survey, the saffron party and the Congress will secure equal vote percentage in the upcoming elections. A sharp dip can be witnessed in the BJP’s performance when compared to the 2012 State Assembly elections. The survey reveals that the BJP’s vote share has dropped by 16 percentage points in just four months. The dip in the BJP’s lead can be partly attributed to the disappointment among traders after the GST rollout and the demonetisation. The Congress, which has been in opposition for the last 22 years, has turned its fortunes around. In August, as per the survey, the Congress had only 29% of the vote-share. This has grown by 14 percentage points in the four months since then.
Coming to the seat wise distribution among the two contending parties, BJP is predicted to secure 91-99 seats, while the Congress is expected to follow closely with 78-86 seats. The results suggest that Rahul Gandhi’s aggressive election campaign has surely worked in favour of the grand old party. The survey also highlights the region-wise vote percentage distribution of the two parties which are as follows:
-Region-wise break down| Central Gujarat (Seats 40): Congress 40 per cent vote share, BJP 41 per cent. BJP loses its vote share by 13 per cent, Congress gains by 2 per cent.
-Region-wise break down| South Gujarat (Seats 35): Congress 42 per cent vote share, BJP 40 per cent. BJP loses its vote share by 9 per cent, Congress gains by 11 per cent.
-Region-wise breakdown | North Gujarat (Seats 53): Congress 49 per cent vote share, BJP 45 per cent
-Region-wise breakdown| Saurashtra-Kutch (Total Seats 54): Congress 39 per cent, BJP 45 per cent
The BJP has won three consecutive Assembly elections under Modi’s leadership. Modi took over as the Gujarat chief minister replacing Keshubhai Patel in October 2001. In the 2002 Assembly election, the party won 127 seats and garnered 49.8 per cent of the votes. It is the highest number of seats the party has ever won in the state. In the 2007 Assembly elections, fought again under Modi as the chief minister, the BJP won 117 seats. Besides the number of seats, BJP’s vote share also saw a marginal decrease to 49.1 per cent. In the last election fought under Modi as chief minister in 2012, both the BJP’s seats and vote share reduced further. While the party won 115 seats, its vote share reduced to 47.85 per cent. As for the Congress, having remained out of power for 27 years in the western state, the party’s aim is to dislodge the BJP and establish its rule once again. The Congress had won the last election in 1985.
This is the lone survey where the BJP is predicted to secure this low number of seats. The opinion polls by other media houses suggest that the saffron party will secure over 110 seats in the election. Here is a list of projections from a few polls conducted by other media houses:
BP-CSDS survey (Second week of November)
– The BJP is projected to secure a majority by bagging 113-121 seats in Gujarat.
– BJP to get a vote share of the saffron party will be 47 per cent.
– Congress is expected to get 58 -64 seats while the vote share of the party will be 41 per cent.
– Vijay Rupani retaining the chief minister’s post.
– In Saurashtra, both Congress and BJP in Saurashtra as both look to get 42 per cent of the vote share.
– In North Gujarat, Congress is expected to fetch 49% of votes and it gave the BJP 44% vote share.
– In Central Gujarat, Congress is predicted to get only 38% votes, while the BJP is set to get 54 pct votes.
– In South Gujarat, BJP may well get 51 pct votes, while the vote share of the Congress will be just 33 per cent.
Times Now-VMR survey (Last week of October)
– The Times Now-VMR survey predicts around 118-134 seats (52 percent of votes) for BJP
– The survey predicts that Congress could secure around 49-61 seats (37 percent votes).
India Today Axis My India (Last week of October)
– BJP is projected to win between 115-125 seats.
– Congress is projected to bag between 57-65 seats.
– BJP to get 48 per cent vote share.
– Congress to get 38 per cent vote share