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  1. Exit polls failed to project victory margin for BJP in Gujarat

Exit polls failed to project victory margin for BJP in Gujarat

Almost all the exit polls were spot on in predicting BJP's victory in Gujarat but a majority of them were off the mark when it came to forecasting the victory margin for the saffron party.

By: | New Delhi | Published: December 18, 2017 11:44 PM
exit polls, gujarat polls, gujarat poll results, bjp in gujarat, bjp victory in gujarat, gujarat assembly election results Almost all the exit polls were spot on in predicting BJP’s victory in Gujarat but a majority of them were off the mark when it came to forecasting the victory margin for the saffron party. (Image: Reuters)

Almost all the exit polls were spot on in predicting BJP’s victory in Gujarat but a majority of them were off the mark when it came to forecasting the victory margin for the saffron party. Most of the exit polls had predicted over 110 seats for the party but it could only manage 99 seats in the 182-member Assembly in Gujarat, the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah. In Himachal too, predictions by some exit polls that BJP will get in excess of 50 seats in the 68-member Assembly were not accurate. According to the final results by the Election Commission (EC), the BJP won 99 seats, securing a majority in the 182- member Gujarat Assembly. The Congress won 77 seats. Almost all exit polls by various media houses had predicted over 110 seats for the BJP in Gujarat where the party has been ensconced in power for close to two decades now. In the 2012 Assembly polls, the BJP had won 115 seats, the Congress 61 and others six. An exit poll by Today’s Chanakya had given BJP 135 seats in Gujarat and predicted a measly 47 for the Congress, 14 less than the opposition party had in the current Assembly. However, the exit poll was correct in predicting a voteshare of 49 per cent for the BJP as according to the EC, the BJP’s voteshare stood at 49.1 per cent.

The Times Now-VMR Exit poll predicted 113 seats for the BJP and 66 for the Congress, with the remaining going to others. The ABP-CSDS exit survey by ABP News predicted a BJP victory in 117 seats as against the Congress’s 64. The NDTV said the BJP was likely to clinch 112 seats and the Congress 70. A survey by India Today’s ‘Aaj Tak’ news channel had predicted that the BJP will win anywhere between 99 and 113 seats. Aaj Tak was the lone channel which said the BJP’s tally could slip under 100. It projected 62 to 82 seats for the Congress.

The News X Exit polls gave 110-120 seats to the BJP and 65 to 75 seats to the Congress, leaving 2-4 seats for others, while the News Nation exit poll gave the BJP as many as 124- 128 seats and the Congress between 52 to 56 seats and 1-3 for others. India TV-VMR survey predicted anywhere between 108 and 118 seats to the BJP while the Republic-C Voter Exit Poll had given the the BJP 108 seats and the Congress 74. In Himachal Pradesh, the BJP wrested power from Congress winning 44 seats in the 68-member Assembly. The Congress won 20 and was leading in one Assembly seat. In Himachal Pradesh, Today’s Chanakya had given the BJP 55 seats and 13 to the ruling Congress.

The Times Now-VMR and Zee News-Axis exit polls predicted identical tally of 51 seats for the BJP in the 68-member Assembly. The Times Now-VMR poll had given 16 seats to the Congress and one to other, while the Zee News-Axis poll forecast 17 seats for the Congress. The Aaj Tak-Axis exit poll gave 47-55 seats to the saffron party, 13-20 to the Congress and 0-2 to others. The ABP News-CSDS exit poll predicted 38 seats for the BJP and 29 for the Congress, with one to others. Among other exit polls, the News X survey predicted 42-50 seats for the BJP and 18-24 for the Congress.

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