Uttar Pradesh Exit polls 2017: Narendra Modi emerges ‘Shahenshah’ of UP, Rahul Gandhi spoils Akhilesh Yadav party; in Punjab, Capt Amarinder saves Congress face

By: | Updated: March 9, 2017 10:11 PM

Assembly elections 2017 to Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur are done and dusted and the exit polls have started appearing indicating who these surveys think will win and who will lose.

Assembly elections 2017 to Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur are done and dusted and the exit polls have started appearing indicating who these surveys think will win and who will lose. (PTI)

Assembly elections 2017 to Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur are done and dusted and the exit polls have started appearing indicating who these surveys think will win and who will lose. The elections are important for all concerned, but most of all for PM Narendra Modi and President Amit Shah led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) who will be looking to rule from India’s biggest state as well as well as thereby (indirectly) ensuring a majority in the Rajya Sabha in Parliament to match the one in Lok Sabha in order to get biggest constitutional reforms to be passed which are at the moment not possible as it does not have majority there. Also, for PM Modi, this can be a referendum, the most important one, on his popularity as well as his demonetisation drive that put most of the Indian citizenry to much inconvenience. For the beleaguered Congress party, the performance in UP and Punjab and to an extent in Uttarakhand may well be the deciding factor whether it even remains alive as a national party. For the Samajwadi Party it means retaining of power and the electorate giving its thumbs-up to Akhilesh Yadav muscling out his father Mulayam from his own party’s power structure. For the Mayawati led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) this will be a big show of power to get into a position with enough MLAs and hope there is a hung house and thereafter dictate the future course of Uttar Pradesh to the largest party. For the Arvind Kejriwal led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) this election in Punjab will indicate whether its national ambitions are on a road to nowhere or not. Well, the official result day is still 2 days away, but Exit Poll opinion results are out and here we present the numbers trotted out by each different entity involved in carrying out this exercise:

UTTAR PRADESH
Exactly how important UP polls are is clear from the fact that Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi camped there on a number of occasions, especially Varanasi. Samajwadi Party, BSP and Congress all had their own leaders at the forefront of the campaigning. But despite all efforts by most others, Modi’s BJP is all set to emerge the largest party.

Uttar Pradesh (403 seats)

India Today Axis | SP+Congress (82-112), BJP (251-279), BSP (28-42), Others (0)
Times Now VMR | SP+Congress (110-130), BJP (190-210), BSP (57-74), Others (8)
India News MRC | SP+Congress (120), BJP (185), BSP (90), Others (9)
India TV C-Voter | SP+Congress (135-147), BJP (155-167), BSP (81-93), Others (8-20)
News 24 Today’s Chanakya | SP+Congress (88), BJP (285 +/-15), BSP (27), Others (3)

MANIPUR
Manipur has been a Congress playground for decades and Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh is ruling there at the moment. He has won the last three assembly elections. The last time around in 2012 he won an absolute majority securing 42 out of the total 60 assembly seats. In 2007, he won 30 seats. But now the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has come up as a big threat. Will Modi wave come to Manipur as it did in Assam? Perhaps.

Manipur (60 seats)

India Today Axis | Congress (30-36), BJP (16-22), Others (3-6)
India TV C-Voter | Congress (17-23), BJP (25-31), Others (9-15)
News 24 Today’s Chanakya | Congress (17-23), BJP (25-31), Others (9-15)

GOA
In Goa Assembly Elections 2017 most agencies have suggested Bharatiya Janata Party will form govt no matter what Congress does. However, Congress was expected to get a large chunk of the vote to keep it alive as a credible opposition. Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) ill remain third and will not be able to steal a march on Congress.

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Goa (40 seats)

Times Now VMR | Congress (10), BJP (15), AAP (7), Others (8)
India Today Axis| Congress (9-13), BJP (18-22), AAP (0-2), Others (1-3)
India TV C-Voter | Congress (12-28), BJP (15-21), AAP (0-4), Others ()

PUNJAB
Punjab is a reflection of the anti-incumbency factor that has hit the Parkash Singh Badal dispensation especially rampant corruption there and its inability to stop the rising drugs menace there. Also, Capt Amarinder Singh worked hard to bring Congress to the forefront while at the same time keeping PM Narendra Modi’s BJP down in third place, which in itself is a big task. Rahul Gandhi did not play any role to get votes for the Congress or not the kind that was expected of him.

Punjab (117 seats)

Times Now VMR | Cong (62-71), BJP + Akali Dal (4-7), AAP (42-51), Others (0-2)
India Today Axis | Cong (62-71), BJP + Akali Dal (4-7), AAP (42-51), Others (0-2)
India TV C-Voter | Cong (41-49), BJP + Akali Dal (5-13), AAP (59-67), Others (0-3)
News 24 Today’s Chanakya | Cong [54 (+/-9)], BJP + Akali [9 (+/-5)], AAP [54 (+/-9)], Others [0 (+/-2)]

UTTARAKHAND
For the people in this hilly state situated in the lap of the Himalayas, it is a simple equation – 5 years are up, time to change the government. The state has been yo-yoing every half-a-decade between the Congress dispensation and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The Chief Minister Harish Rawat-led Congress government won a major victory when the Centre tried to unseat him and it took the courts to give him back his chief ministerial seat. However, that is not likely to stop the trend and with the Narendra Modi wave thrown in, the state is expected to vote in BJP.

Uttarakhand (71 seats)

Times Now VMR | Congress (), BJP (), BSP (), Others (8)
India Today Axis | Congress (12-21), BJP (46-53), BSP (), Others (2-6)
India TV C-Voter | Congress (32), BJP (32), BSP (), Others (5)
News 24 Today’s Chanakya | Congress (15), BJP (53), BSP (0), Others (2)

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