Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah captured the opposition’s sentiment in two words on Monday as vote counting in key state assembly elections continued to dominate trends online. Taking to X, Abdullah wrote, “Bloody hell!!” along with a string of shocked emojis. The National Conference leader’s post quickly went viral, racking up hundreds of thousands of views within hours and reflecting the surprise around early trends from West Bengal and Tamil Nadu.

West Bengal trends hint at a big political shift 

In West Bengal, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appeared to be making massive inroads against the long-dominant Trinamool Congress (TMC) led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.

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Early numbers showed the BJP leading in over 170 seats, comfortably above the majority mark of 148 in the 294-member Assembly. The TMC, which has been in power since 2011, appeared to be trailing by a wide margin at that stage. If these trends hold, it could signal a major political change in the state, despite the TMC’s strong grassroots network and Mamata Banerjee’s popularity in several regions, including Bhabanipur, where the BJP candidate Suvendu Adhikari has currently taken a lead.

As of now, the BJP is leading in a large number of seats across the state. The elections also saw very high voter turnout, with more than 92% participation across phases. Supporters of the BJP have already begun celebrating in some areas, seeing the early trends as a sign of change. On the other hand, the TMC is expected to respond as the picture becomes clearer with more rounds of counting.

In 2021, Mamata Banerjee’s TMC won a clear mandate, securing 213 out of 294 seats with around 48% vote share. The BJP came second with 77 seats and about 38% of the votes, a big jump from its earlier performance. 

Tamil Nadu sees a more split contest 

The situation in Tamil Nadu looked very different. Instead of a clear lead, the state appeared headed for a more divided result. There were signs of anti-incumbency against the ruling DMK, while actor-turned-politician Vijay’s party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), emerged as a fresh factor in the race. Early leads suggested that his party was cutting into votes and making its presence felt. 

At the same time, the AIADMK and BJP alliance also showed strength in several areas, keeping the contest wide open. 

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister and DMK president M.K. Stalin was among several party leaders who were trailing in their constituencies after the third round of counting (at the time of writing).

According to the Election Commission of India (ECI), Stalin, contesting from Kolathur, was behind in early trends. Similarly, Deputy Chief Minister Udhayanidhi Stalin was trailing in the Chepauk–Thiruvallikeni seat.

Omar calls it a ‘political earthquake’

Later in the day, Omar Abdullah shared more thoughts as he continued to follow the results. He described the changing pattern as a “political earthquake”, saying its “aftershocks” could be felt across the country. 

“Elections in India have always meant @PrannoyRoy7749 for sane, sensible interpretation of the trends & results, and that’s why today the screens in my office have been tuned to @DeKoderAI to watch the unfolding political earthquake in West Bengal & Tamil Nadu. The aftershocks of these results will be felt far & wide for a long time, probably all the way up to 2029.”