Small improvement in economic activity

By: | Published: April 3, 2017 3:52 AM

Economic Activity saw small improvement in February led by foreign trade and consumer indicators — especially Autos. Activity Index growth 3m m.a. improved to 0.8% vs 0.3% in Jan.

Economic Activity, consumer indicators, Activity Index growth, Electricity, Oil, 2W, Coal offtake, Oil consumption, FIIEconomic Activity saw small improvement in February led by foreign trade and consumer indicators — especially Autos. Activity Index growth 3m m.a. improved to 0.8% vs 0.3% in Jan. (Source: Reuters)

Economic Activity saw small improvement in February led by foreign trade and consumer indicators — especially Autos. Activity Index growth 3m m.a. improved to 0.8% vs 0.3% in Jan. Momentum indicators also turned neutral. Trends across various indicators though are mixed with Foreign trade, Steel, Airport traffic and PV being the key positives while Freight, Electricity, Oil, 2W and inflation were the key negatives in February.

Small uptick: Economic activity saw a small uptick in February with our Activity Index monthly growth improving to 3.1% vs 0.9% in Jan. Momentum indicators also turned neutral in February. Of the 36 indicators we track, 12 are improving and 13 deteriorating. The key positives are the sharp improvement in Foreign trade and Auto sales. The key negatives were the industry and freight data.

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Mixed trends: While foreign trade has seen improvement, port and railway traffic remains muted. Among industry, most indicators remain weak with Steel and Coal being the exception. Among consumer, Auto indicators— PV and CV—have improved. PV sales are benefiting from regulation changes due in April. Ex of these, Airport traffic remains strong while oil consumption and 2W remain weak.

Electricity demand growth was weak at 2% while Coal offtake remains stable. Oil consumption declined y-o-y for the second month. Foreign trade growth has improved with exports at 18% and imports at 23%. Port traffic growth decelerated to 0% in Feb. FII saw sharp inflows of $5.6 in March.

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