The retail inflation is likely to rise to 5.5 per cent in the last quarter of this fiscal and thereafter may moderate to 5.2 per cent by September 2016, says an RBI-sponsored survey of professional forecasters.
“CPI (Consumer Price Index) headline inflation is expected to increase to 5.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2015-16 and thereafter moderate to 5.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2016-17,” the Survey of Professional Forecasters on Macroeconomic Indicators released on RBI website said.
The forecasters expect core CPI (defined as excluding food and fuel) inflation to remain at around 5 per cent till second quarter of 2016-17.
Rising for the third straight month, the retail inflation climbed to 5 per cent in October due to costlier pulses and other food items.
While, Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation is expected at around 1 per cent in last quarter of the current fiscal and expected to increase to 2.4 per cent in the second quarter of 2016-17.
The WPI inflation is in the negative zone for 12 months, the October data revealed.
It further said that forecasters expect real Gross Value Added at basic price (GVA) to increase by 7.4 per cent in 2015-16.
‘Agriculture and Allied Activities’ and ‘Services’ are expected to grow by 1.5 per cent and 9.3 per cent, respectively. ‘Industry growth forecast has been placed at 6.6 per cent.
GVA is a new concept introduced by Central Statistical Office (CSO) to measure economic activity.
“In 2016-17, GVA is expected to increase by 7.8 per cent, led by growth in ‘Services’ by 9.6 per cent. ‘Agriculture and Allied Activities’ and ‘Industry’ are expected to grow by 2.7 per cent and 6.9 per cent, respectively,” the survey said.
The central bank said the results of the survey represent the views of the respondent forecasters and “in no way reflect” the views or forecasts of the Reserve Bank. Twenty Four professional forecasters participated in the survey conducted in November 2015.