RBI Monetary Policy meeting LIVE updates: The Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee hiked repo rate by 50 bps taking it to pre COVID pandemic levels. The repo rate now stands to 5.40 per cent, highest level since August 2019. This is the third consecutive hike in the repo rate in the last three months. RBI Guv Shaktikanta Das said that consumer price inflation has eased, but remains higher than comfort levels. The real GDP growth projection has also been retained at 7.2 per cent for 2022-23. Moreover, RBI policy stance has been retained at ‘Withdrawal of Accommodation’. “Volatility in global financial markets is impinging upon domestic financial markets leading to imported inflation,” Das added.
RBI Monetary Policy August 2022 Live Announcements: RBI MPC likely to hike repo rate by 35-50 bps; may withdraw accommodative stance
The path to the neutral rates is a two-milestone journey. The first milestone is when inflation falls into the tolerance band. The second is when it aligns with the target, said Michael Patra, Deputy Governor, RBI
India's overnight indexed swap rates jumped by at least 15 basis points after the country's central bank hiked its key policy repo rate by 50 basis points and highlighted inflation concerns. The one-year swap rate was trading at 6.14%, up 15 bps from its previous close, while the five-year swap rate rose 16 bps to 6.32% compared with Thursday's close.
The country’s foreign exchange reserves rose $2.4 billion during the week ended July 29 after declining for four consecutive weeks as foreign portfolio investors returned back to the Indian markets as net investors.
The RBI on Friday retained inflation forecast for FY23 at 6.7 per cent amid uncertain price trajectory on “geopolitical shocks” and on hope that inflationary pressures would ease with pick-up in kharif sowing and supply chain improvements. In its previous monetary policy review in June, it had projected retail inflation for 2022-23 at 6.7 per cent, higher from 5.7 per cent forecast in April. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to raise the benchmark repo rate by a steep 50 basis points to 5.40 per cent with immediate effect to tame inflation while supporting growth.
“We do not expect retail inflation to come within RBI's comfort zone of 2-6% before the closing months of the current financial year. This is likely to nudge the RBI to maintain the current tightening stance. At the same time, given the current subdued global growth outlook, the RBI is likely to slow down the policy rate normalization from this point onwards. Our assessment suggests that the market is currently factoring in the peak repo rate at 6% in this cycle and the medium term inflation in the range of 5 to 5.2%. We have similar view on the rate front but we feel that the softening of inflation in the early part of the next financial year can be substantially more than what is being currently factored in. The measures are neutral for debt and equity markets but positive for rupee.”
~Sujan Hajra – Chief Economist and Executive Director, Anand Rathi Shares & Stock Brokers
“The 50 bps rate hike by the Reserve Bank of India today is broadly in line with the consensus expectations. Recent strong growth performance in India, the prevailing positive growth outlook and the perception that all central banks including the RBI is behind the inflation curve seem to have pushed the RBI to continue with faster normalization of the policy rate. The current elevated level of inflation and the likelihood of inflation for the next three months being higher than the current level also likely to have influenced RBI's decision to go for a 50 with rate hike this time. We expect the inflation to remain elevated for the next three months and come down gradually thereafter.”
~Sujan Hajra – Chief Economist and Executive Director, Anand Rathi Shares & Stock Brokers
“The RBI hike in repo rate was impending due to the inflation spike and global macroeconomic scenarios. The overall increase of ~ 1% in the cost of funds by the RBI over the last few months will impact the overall feasibility of large projects, infrastructure and long gestation projects. MSMEs, on the other hand, are recovering due to improved customer sentiment after nearly 2 years of uncertainty. MSMEs need more adequacy and certainty of funds versus costs alone and thus we believe they should be able to handle this increase, as long as this stays in this range for the medium term. The increase in NACH mandate limits per transaction to Rs. 15000 from Rs. 5000 will expand quick access to credit to the customers. The silver lining is the calibration that RBI continues to hint for its monetary policy action in future – evenly balanced towards growth and fiscal stability measures.”
~Manish Lunia, Co-Founder of Flexiloans.com
“After Fed and BoE, the RBI has followed suit to hike rates to tame the runaway inflation. The rising inflation has become a cause of concern, so much so that central banks across the globe are focused on inflation over growth. The positive of the policy is the fact that the central bank kept the growth rate unchanged at 7.2% for FY23. We are now back to rates seen in the pre-COVID era. The current bank credit growth at 14% vs 5.5% a year ago indicates the strong undercurrent in the economy. The surplus system liquidity at Rs 3.8 lk cr will take care of the funding requirement. Going forward, the central bank's success in controlling inflation, geo-political tensions, and movement of crude oil prices will impact further policies by the central bank.”
~Nish Bhatt, Founder & CEO, Millwood Kane International
“We believe that growth would be 6-6.5% in FY23, while inflation could be lower than RBI forecasts in 2QFY23 (6.9% vs 7.1%) and 1QFY24 (4.6% vs 5%) but higher in 4QFY23 (6.2% vs 5.8%). Overall, RBI's action and statement today was not as dovish as we expected. Therefore, it is very likely that the terminal rate in this rate hike episode will be higher than our expectations. We, thus, revise it to 5.75-6% from 5.5% expected earlier.”
~Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, Motilal Oswal Financial Services group
“The RBI hikes the repo rate by 50bp to 5.4%, more than the consensus (5.25%) and our expectation (5.15%). Further, there was no change in the stance or any relief in the Governor's statement, indicating a possible pause in the next policy. The rate decision was also taken unanimously today. The economic forecasts were also kept unchanged. FY23 inflation/real GDP growth projections are retained at 6.7%/7.2% (with small tweaks in 2Q/3Q inflation). This means that even after total rate hikes of 180bp (including Apr'22), RBI has kept FY23 real GDP growth forecast unchanged since Apr'22, which is perplexing.”
~Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, Motilal Oswal Financial Services group
“The RBI’s hike of 50 bps in Repo rate is front-loaded to ensure that easing inflation comes below RBIs upper band of 6 % by 4QFY23. Since Growth is becoming broad-based & private Capex is showing signs of revival, the RBI has front-loaded repo rate hike to control inflation. Interestingly, the RBI has kept the Indian economy flying high (7.2 % GDP Growth in FY23) through turbulent weather. The RBI has clearly differentiated itself vs a vs many other central banks which are looking to hard land their economy (recession in FY23) to bring down inflation”.
~Nilesh Shah, Group President & MD, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company
“MPC stays on course with a 50 bps repo rate hike maintaining its tight vigil on inflation. Retaining FY23 inflation projection at 6.7% highlights global uncertainties. Continuation with “withdrawal of accommodation” signals more rate hikes to come as healthy economy provides space. Overall, a more hawkish policy than the recent market expectations and reiterates the need to anchor inflation expectations. We expect market volatility to remain high with fast evolving global backdrop”.
~Vikas Garg – Head of Fixed Income, Invesco Mutual Fund
“We can’t assess the current account deficit for FY23 as a whole on the basis of one month’s merchandise trade data,” said RBI Deputy Governor Michael Patra at the post-policy press conference. “We see FY23 current account deficit at sustainable levels. But I would not like to divulge the exact number we expect for current account deficit,” said Governor Shaktikanta Das.
“So far as current inflation is concerned, I don’t think demand is a factor. It’s primarily due to supply issues and imported inflation. Our monetary policy actions have not fueled domestic inflation, said Governor Das. “I can’t say at what inflation level the MPC will pause on interest rates as the situation is dynamic and very uncertain, he added in the post-policy press conference.
“Markets were expecting a rate hike between 35-50 bps, so the RBI hike of 50 bps is on the higher side of the expectations. The RBI emphasized that it remains committed to the withdrawal of the liquidity to the contain the inflation. However, the governor did mention that the signs of moderation in inflation are emerging in form of ease in metals and food commodities and inflation is expected to be within the tolerance limit at 5.8% by Q4FY23. There was no forward guidance on the rate trajectory going forward, however, we believe that with much of the front loading behind us and oil prices also easing, RBI will go for a 15bps – 25bps hike in the next MPC meeting.”
~Ritika Chhabra- Economic and Quant Analyst, Prabhudas Lilladher
Current account deficit is expected to remain within manageable limits. We have the ability to finance the current account deficit. Forex reserves remain strong and we will deal with excess volatility in the exchange rate. MPC targets inflation while keeping in mind the objective of growth. The rupee's exchange rate is an indirect determinant of policy through its effect on inflation. But the level of exchange rate itself is not a factor for the MPC to deliberate: RBI Governor
Negative interest rate is something that engaged the attention of MPC during its discussions and also internally in the central bank. “I can not spell out if we want to frontload and come to positive rates quickly. It will depend on the evolving dynamics. There are two aspects to it. One is our primary target to bring down inflation closer to the target and factoring in the aspect of growth and so many international uncertainties and developments,” said RBI Guv.
“RBI policy was hawkish and the MPC delivered a frontloaded 50 bps rate hike compared to market expectations of 35-40 bps hike, thereby taking the policy rate above pre-Covid levels. The central bank has retained the inflation target for FY23 at 6.7%, despite the softening of base metal and food prices from their earlier highs. The RBI mentioned that the domestic economic activity is showing signs of broadening with improving credit growth, pick-up in investment activity and rising capacity utilization. However, risks like geo political concerns and global financial market volatility and tightening financial conditions will weigh heavily on the outlook. With that, RBI retained the GDP growth forecast for FY23 at 7.2%. With the hawkish policy today, bond yields have hardened and we expect them to remain elevated in the near term. RBI’s future course of action will continue to be data dependent and influenced by global factors.”
~Sampath Reddy, CIO, Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance
“Taking inflation head-on, RBI has raised rates by 50 bps, in line with our expectations. While showing faith in growth, MPC gave higher priority to address inflation, maintain financial stability in growing global financial volatility, and ensuring policy does not lag behind. In doing so, RBI has shown its resolve towards meeting medium term inflation target and ensuring stability to support medium to long run growth for the economy. The endeavour to get real rates in positive territory, as mentioned earlier by RBI, gets closer with this move and we expect another 50-bps rate hike by MPC over next couple of MPC meetings before the pause. As we are much better relatively in terms of growth and inflation, we might not have to tighten as aggressively as western countries and hence might not need to turn around policy direction sooner, which reduces policy uncertainty. RBI has chosen to be cautious now and leave policy space for future support to growth.”
~Akhil Mittal, Senior Fund Manager-Fixed Income, Tata Mutual Fund
Most likely scenario is banks will pass on impact of repo rate hike to deposit rates. This is already happening and the trend will continue, said RBI Governor.
“RBI in its latest MPC meeting has hiked the repo rate by 50bps to 5.4% – levels which was seen before the Covid-19 pandemic. The Central Bank raised the interest rate for the 3rd consecutive month since May’22 by cumulatively 140 bps in its effort to contain inflation. Despite this sharp hike, RBI expects the inflation to remain above its comfort zone and has retained its CPI inflation forecast at 6.7% for FY23. RBI expects India’s GDP growth to remain strong at 7.2% in FY23. We believe, the commodity prices have cooled off including crude oil, the inflation may be peaking out. We expect RBI may not be very aggressive in its subsequent policy meets and being more data driven based on inflation numbers.”
~Motilal Oswal, MD & CEO, Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Liquidity is gradually reducing and RBI will conduct fine-tuning operations on both sides. The current account deficit is manageable and reserve cover remains strong.
Monetary policy will be calibrated, measured, and nimble, said Shaktikanta Das.
In times of turbulence Indian economy is island of stability. Monetary Policy focus will remain on soft landing of economy, said RBI Governor.
“For the real estate sector specifically, the third subsequent rate rise will mean a deterioration of affordability and may impact the sentiments of home buyers. With the cumulative rate hike until today, assuming complete transmission, a prospective home buyers’ affordability shrinks by around 11% i.e. from an ability of purchasing a house of Rs.1 crore value shrinking to Rs. 89 lacs now. Developers are expected to undertake mitigating measures to soften the blow on homebuyer affordability. The increase of interest rates and the subsequent transmission of these into the home loan rates, while has the capability of impacting demand, we hope that the latent demand for housing will soften the impact of the latest change in the Repo rates.”
~ Shishir Baijal, Chairman & Managing Director, Knight Frank India
“The RBI’s decision to raise the Repo rate by 50 basis point is in line with our expectations. The RBI has been compelled to take steps to control India’s Consumer inflation which has remained above the tolerance level of 6%. So far the commercial banks have transmitted the policy rate hike to the borrowers, resulting in an increase in lending rates across all the sectors including real estate. Today’s rate hike will further harden the rates. In terms of liquidity, the measures have cut the extent of liquidity window. However, adequate liquidity is managed, and improved manufacturing capacity utilisation will be supportive of credit growth going forward.”
~ Shishir Baijal, Chairman & Managing Director, Knight Frank India
CPI inflation at unacceptably high level. Given the situation, 50 bps repo rate hike is the new normal. Monetary policy Committee took balanced call on repo rate keeping inflation and growth both under consideration, said RBI guv Shaktikanta Das.
CPI inflation has peaked. It will moderate going into the fourth quarter, said RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will conduct two-way fine-tuning liquidity operations depending on evolving financial conditions.
The RBI on Friday retained its retail inflation forecast for the current fiscal year at 6.7 per cent amid geopolitical developments and higher global commodity prices, hoping inflationary pressures to ease further. In its previous monetary policy review in June, it had projected retail inflation for 2022-23 at 6.7 per cent, up from 5.7 per cent forecast in April. The RBI raised the benchmark lending repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.40 per cent. Read full story
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday retained its growth projection at 7.2 per cent for the current fiscal as it sees improvement in urban demand and gradual recovery in rural India aided by normal monsoon. Unveiling the fourth monetary policy for the current fiscal, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the central bank remains committed to price stability to put the country on the sustained path of growth. The RBI expects growth in the first quarter of the current fiscal at 16.2 per cent, which will taper to 4 per cent by the fourth quarter. Read full story
With core inflation continuing to hover well above the upper tolerance limit, the RBI increased the repo rate by 50 bps, broadly in line with market expectations. Repo rates reverted to pre-pandemic levels, the highest since August 2019. The MPC maintained its stance on calibrated withdrawal of accommodation while supporting growth. We have seen system liquidity tighten since RBI started withdrawing excess liquidity, and system credit growth improved to 14%. With credit growth looking up, we believe the banks with a higher share of floating rates and a robust CASA-led deposit franchise should be placed well in this increasing interest rate environment. While the domestic inflationary pressures seem to be easing out gradually, the geopolitical tensions, volatility in global financial markets, and emerging risk of the global recession continue to remain key risks. Thus, the RBI has retained its inflation estimates for FY23, mildly tweaking Q2 and Q3 estimates, expecting relief only from Q4 onwards. It has also retained its growth estimates at 7.2% for FY23.
~Naveen Kulkarni , Chief Investment Officer, Axis Securities
Despite the odds, we’re still hopeful as there is significant pent-up demand from a very large population base and first-time homebuyers. Many high-frequency indicators are also suggesting that the economy has been recovering in a robust way and this will influence real estate positively. Ramani Sastri – Chairman & MD, Sterling Developers
The RBI move might have an immediate impact on home buying for a short-term as the recent consecutive repo rate hikes have already added to buyers’ overall acquisition cost. Rising interest rates along with elevated property construction cost and product price pressures could adversely impact the real estate sentiment when buyers are likely to invest in their dream homes foreseeing the festive season. The real estate sector had just started seeing gradual recovery across key property markets, driven primarily by end-users and this decision will have adverse impact for the interest rate-sensitive Indian real estate sector. Ramani Sastri – Chairman & MD, Sterling Developers
RBI MPC voted unanimously hike repo rate by 50 bps to 5.4% – taking to pre pandemic levels. RBI MPC is line with our expectations. Inflation seems to be at the forefront of the move as they maintained CPI forecasts intact at 6.7% for FY 23. To us, this means we are not done with rate hiking cycle yet and we could brace for continued northward journey in rates. Withdrawal of accommodative stance has been maintained. We see this as a “no dovish” undertone policy contrary to markets expecting a dovish stance. Bond markets would now focus on incremental gsec supply and take cues from global bond yields going forward. Staggered investment approach in fixed income stays. Lakshmi Iyer, Chief Investment Officer (Debt) & Head Products, Kotak Mahindra AMC
As expected RBI has hiked by 50 bps keeping them in line with what other central banks have done. Till inflation is brought under control, we believe the bias remains in favour of higher rates. Sameer Kaul – MD & CEO, TrustPlutus Wealth
The RBI today increased the repo rate by another 50 bps to 5.40% with immediate effect. With this move, the stage is set to return to pre-COVID levels with an end of the easy money era. There is absolutely zero probability of India slipping into recession. This will take the terminal rate to 5.90 percent by the end of FY23. A normal monsoon, good crop year, easing of household inflation and de-escalation of tension between Russia and Ukraine will help keep crude prices in check. D.R.E Reddy, CEO and Managing Partner, CRCL LLP
We had expected the RBI to hike the interest rate by 25-35 basis points. However, it has hiked by 50 basis points. One of the reasons why the RBI has decided to act a tad aggressive in hiking the rate of interest is to protect the Indian currency. This is back on yesterday's occurrence, where the Bank of England hiked interest rate by 50 basis points. As we advance, at the maximum, the RBI may have one more rate hike and perhaps pause on announcing further rate hikes. Sunil Damania, Chief Investment Officer, MarketsMojo
Investment philosophies will change as a result of the additional increase of the REPO rate of 5.4 percent to beat inflation. As opposed to equity products, investors will seek to diversify into fixed income high yield assets like bonds, and income-producing commercial real estate. Investors' best defense against inflation will be diversification. Kenish Shah, Co-Founder, PropReturns
The 50 bp repo rate hike came 15 bp higher than the majority expectation of a 35bp hike. It is evident that the MPC is frontloading the rate hikes since it feels that “CPI inflation is above comfort levels”. The MPC has been emboldened to go for this 50 bp hike since “the economic activity is resilient” and “withdrawal of accommodation stance is necessary to anchor inflation expectations”. The RBI governor went so far as to say that ” the Indian economy is holding steady in an ocean of turbulence.” The capacity utilization in industry at 75% is higher than the long-term average. This positive view on the economy has been well received by the stock market in spite of the higher at hand expected repo rate hike. V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services
On its mission to curb domestic inflation, the RBI has increased the repo rate by 50 bps in the MPC meeting to 5.4%. The ultimate impact of this decision on the inflationary pressure might be equally dependent upon the supply-side performance of the economy, where the recent dropdowns in the GDP growth estimates by IMF of 80bps to 7.4% might be seen as a challenge. Hence, it will be interesting to see, how these consecutive rate hikes, keeping in mind the concerning global economic indicators, iron out the path to long term growth for India. Rohin Agarwal, Vice President at Avener Capital
RBI has proposed to enable Bharat Bill Payment System to accept cross-border inward bill payments. This will enable NRIs to undertake bill payments for utilities, education and other such payments on behalf of their families in India. This will benefit the senior citizens in particular, Das said.
Surplus liquidity in the banking system has come down to Rs 3.8 lakh crore, from Rs 6.7 lakh crore in April-May: Das (PTI)
Inflation projection for FY23 retained at 6.7% on assumption of normal monsoon and crude oil at USD 105/barrel, says RBI Guv
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that edible oil prices likely to soften further
July-September CPI inflation seen at 7.1%; October-December CPI inflation seen at 6.4%; January-March 2023 CPI inflation seen at 5.8%
Household inflation expectations have eased, but remain elevated, said RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das
RBI used forex reserves in July to curb currency volatility. Forex reserves now among top 4 in the world, RBI Guv Shaktikanta Das said
RBI Guv Shaktikanta Das said that Rupee fall is more due to Dollar appreciation, rather than macro deterioration
Rupee depreciation has happened in an orderly fashion. RBI remains watchful and focussed on maintaining stability of Indian Rupee, said RBI Governor. The central bank will remain vigilant on liquidity front, he added.
FY23 GDP projection retained at 7.2%
-April-June GDP growth seen at 16.2%
-July-September GDP growth seen at 6.2%
-October-December GDP growth seen at 4.1%
-January-March 2023 GDP growth seen at 4.0%
Real GDP growth forecast for FY24 is 6.7%
Consumer price index (CPI) inflation remains uncomfortably high and is expected to remain above 6%, said RBI Governor.
FY23 CPI inflation seen at 6.7%
Q FY24 CPI inflation seen at 5%