NITI Aayog seeks more time to analyse GDP back series data; may release it by December-end

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Published: November 13, 2018 12:53:05 PM

With the change in the base year, the GDP growth for the financial year 2013-14 was estimated at 6.9% as compared with 4.7% on the 2004-05 base year. Similarly, the growth rate for 2012-13 was also revised from 4.5% to 5.1%.

GDP back series: The government in January 2015 had decided to change the base year of 2004-05 to 2011-12 for national accounts.

The much-anticipated back series data of gross domestic product (GDP) of India would now be released by the end of December as the policy think tank Niti Aayog has sought more time to analyse and recalculate the growth estimates. The government had earlier set an internal deadline of November for the revised estimates of GDP growth from 2004–2005 to 2011-2012 and was expected to announce it on Monday.

In the last moment decision on Monday, Niti Aayog said that a roundtable discussion was held under the chairmanship of Rajiv Kumar, vice-chairman, of NITI Aayog, for the purpose. “During the ensuing discussion, experts sought analytical information, which is being worked out. It was, therefore decided to have a follow-up roundtable discussion with experts shortly,” Anna Roy, Adviser (Data Management & Analysis) at NITI Aayog said in a statement.

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The government in January 2015 had decided to change the base year of 2004-05 for national accounts to new base year of 2011-12. The base year had been revised earlier in January 2010. The Central Statistics Office (CSO) therefore in the new series did away with GDP at factor cost, while adopting global practices of valuing industry-wise estimates as GVA (gross value added) at current or basic prices.

With the change in the base year, the GDP growth for the financial year 2013-14 was estimated at 6.9% as compared with 4.7% on the 2004-05 base year. Similarly, the growth rate for 2012-13 was also revised from 4.5% to 5.1%.

However, for the years preceding fiscal 2011-12, CSO faced difficulties while evaluating growth rate of the economy with the new base year, mainly on account of lack of availability of MCA-21 database. The then Chief Statistician of India T C A Anant also stated in 2017 that they are facing a major statistical challenge while analysing back series due to the unavailability of data from earlier years.

The back series GDP data is being widely anticipated as a Committee on Real Sector Statistics, appointed by the National Statistical Commission (NSC), the autonomous body that helps in data collection by India’s statistical agencies, had said in a report that the Indian economy grew at a faster pace from 2004-05 to 2013-14, compared with the average growth during the first four years of the present government.

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