Narendra Modi government’s latest inflation, IIP data throws up interesting trends: 10 things to know

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New Delhi | Updated: Apr 12, 2017 7:28 PM

The Central Statistics Office (CSO), which comes under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme implementation, today released crucial industrial and inflation data.

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The Central Statistics Office (CSO), which comes under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme implementation, today released crucial industrial and inflation data. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP), which measures the growth of different industrial sectors of the Indian economy, was released for the month of February 2017 as compared to the same month in the previous year. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI), which measure the rate of inflation in consumer goods as well as the food prices respectively, were also released. The data show the changes in CPI and CFPI as compared to the last month as well as the corresponding month of the last year.

Both inflation and IIP data are interesting because they tell a lot about the effect of demonetisation on the economy. While food inflation continues to be low, the manufacturing sector hasn’t grown much, despite Narendra Modi government’s attempt at boosting the industrial production in India with projects like ‘Make in India’.

Rural CFPI decreases

For March 2017, the provisional Consumer Food Price Index is 1.85%. In February, the rural CFPI was 2.08% while in March 2016, it was 5.79%.

Urban CFPI increases

The Consumer Food Price Index for March 2017 (provisional) for Urban areas is 3.88 2.27%. In February the urban CFPI was 1.87%, while in March 2016, it was 3.98%.

CPI, CFPI continues to remain much lower than the corresponding months in 2016.

In March 2016, the combined (both rural and urban) CPI was 4.83% while the combined CFPI was 5.21%. These numbers decreased drastically in 2017, possibly due to demonetisation. In February 2017, the combined CPI was 3.65% which has provisionally increased to 3.81% for March. The combined CPI for February 2017 was 2.01%, which further decreased to 1.93% in March 2017.

Index of Industrial Production (IIP) decreases by 1.2%

The IIP for February 2017 is 182.3, which is 1.2% less when compared to the level in February 2016. According to the CSO data, the cumulative industrial growth during April-February 2016-17, as compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, is 0.4%.

Fifteen out of 22 industry groups show negative growth

The IIP data shows that 15 out of 22 industry groups in the manufacturing sector have shown negative growth during the month of February 2017 as compared to the corresponding month of 2016.

Tobacco products industries lose big

The tobacco products industry has seen the biggest decline of (-) 42.8 % in the one year.

Food products and Beverages and Office, accounting and computing machinery industries see big decline

Industries bracketed under the Food products and Beverages and Office, Accounting and Computing Machinery industries witnessed a high decline of (-) 21.7% and (-) 20.6% respectively.

Industries producing ‘Cable, Rubber Insulated’ products see massive gains.

The ‘Cable, Rubber Insulated’ industry witnessed a growth of 241.2%. This was followed by Cement Machinery (116.5%), and Electric Sheets (90.1%).

Woolen carpets, plastic machinery see massive losses

The industries that registered high negative growth included Woollen carpets (-) 66.4%, followed by Plastic machinery including Moulding Machinery (-) 52.2%, Ship Building and Repairs (-) 49.7% and Sugar Machinery (-) 47.8%.

CPI and CFPI calculated with the Base Year 2012=100.

To calculate the CPI and CFPI, the CSO had revised the Base Year of the CPI from 2010=100 to 2012=100 with effect from the release of indices for the month of January 2015.

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