Monsoon to hit Kerala coast on May 30, says Skymet

By: |
May 14, 2021 1:00 AM

“The seasonal rainfall this year is likely to be normal across the country, barring Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, Assam and eastern Uttar Pradesh,” M Rajeevan, secretary at ministry of earth sciences, had said. Many parts of the eastern region may experience below normal rainfall.

The normal onset date of the monsoon over Kerala is June 1.The normal onset date of the monsoon over Kerala is June 1.

Private weather forecaster Skymet on Thursday predicted that southwest monsoon would hit the Kerala coast on May 30, two days before the usual onset date, because of a possible storm in the Arabian sea.

“The onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala is likely to be on May 30, with a model error of +/- 2 days,” Skymet said in a statement. India Meteorological Department (IMD) will release its onset forecast on Saturday.

Last year, IMD had initially predicted onset on June 5, with a model error of +/- 4 days and later revised it to June 1, which proved correct, after a cyclonic circulation over the Bay of Bengal helped in the progress of monsoon.

Usually, monsoon arrives on Kerala coast in June and spreads to most of rest of India by mid-July.

After two successive years of ‘above-normal’ rainfall, the country would witness ‘normal’ south-west monsoon this year with precipitation at 98% of the long period average (LPA) of 88cm, IMD said last month releasing its first forecast, which is scheduled to be updated by end of this month.
If the prediction holds true, it would augur well for food grains production, and thereby the agriculture gross value added (GVA), but such forecasts have not always been accurate. Skymet, on the other hand, sees the monsoon precipitation at 103%, with an error margin of +/- 5%.

“Onset of south-west monsoon over Kerala is largely influenced by the oceanic conditions, both in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. A likely cyclone formation in the Arabian Sea will be consequential for advance of monsoon stream over Indian waters. “However, tropical storm ‘Tauktae’ will vacate the Indian region by May 22, following which the westerly winds and cross equatorial flow will strengthen over the Arabian Sea. This also will be assisted by the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) entering Indian Ocean with moderate amplitude. Pre-monsoon showers will be intense and hefty over Kerala,” Skymet said.

Though grains output has risen in recent years and agriculture sector in FY20 and FY21 remained a bright spot in the sagging economy, the link between overall monsoon rains and agricultural production has been rather tenuous. Of course, distribution and duration of rains do have a role in production of key grains, given that 52% of the crop area is still rain-fed. The monsoon rains are crucial for kharif crops like paddy, pulses and oilseeds and help boost soil moisture for the rabi crop.

“The seasonal rainfall this year is likely to be normal across the country, barring Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, Assam and eastern Uttar Pradesh,” M Rajeevan, secretary at ministry of earth sciences, had said. Many parts of the eastern region may experience below normal rainfall.

Rainfall ranging between 96-104% of LPA is considered ‘normal’ while anything between 90-96% of LPA is ‘below normal’. Similarly, precipitation between 104-110% of LPA is ‘above normal’ and below 90% is ‘deficient’.

Do you know What is Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), Finance Bill, Fiscal Policy in India, Expenditure Budget, Customs Duty? FE Knowledge Desk explains each of these and more in detail at Financial Express Explained. Also get Live BSE/NSE Stock Prices, latest NAV of Mutual Funds, Best equity funds, Top Gainers, Top Losers on Financial Express. Don’t forget to try our free Income Tax Calculator tool.

Financial Express is now on Telegram. Click here to join our channel and stay updated with the latest Biz news and updates.

Next Stories
1Assam microfinance relief package ‘positive’ from asset quality perspective
2Jobless rate up again
3Indications of revival in economic activity as states get into unlock mode: Survey