The IMD in its forecast until October 3 sees "large excess rainfall" likely over Bihar and adjoining areas of east Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal and "above normal" rains over Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, interior Maharashtra, north Odisha, Gujarat, Mizoram, Tripura, Kerala and Lakshadweep.
The four-month monsoon season is officially ending on Monday, but it is unlikely that it will withdrawal in the coming week, IMD Director General Mritunjay Mohapatra said on Sunday. The monsoon season officially begins on June 1 and ends on September 30. It reaches Ganganagar in west Rajasthan, the last post for the monsoon in the country, on July 15 and starts retreating from September 1. However, the monsoon has not shown signs of withdrawal. Instead, active monsoon still prevails over parts of Rajasthan, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.
Parts of Gujarat and Rajasthan are getting rainfall due to a low pressure area and this could continue until October 5, Mohapatra said.
The IMD in its forecast until October 3 sees “large excess rainfall” likely over Bihar and adjoining areas of east Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal and “above normal” rains over Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, interior Maharashtra, north Odisha, Gujarat, Mizoram, Tripura, Kerala and Lakshadweep.
Mohapatra said this could also, perhaps, be the longest recorded delayed withdrawal of monsoon. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has monsoon records from 1960. K J Ramesh, Mohapatra’s predecessor, said there have been instances in the past that monsoon has withdrawn in the first week of October. “It has been observed that the instances of delayed monsoon withdrawal is on the rise since 2010,” Ramesh said.
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Overall, the country has received 9 per cent more rainfall than normal. Of the four meteorological divisions of the IMD, the east and northeast India and northwest India divisions have recorded rainfall deficiency of minus 13 and 3 per cent respectively.
The east and northeast India covers states of West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar and all seven northeastern states. The northwest India division covers states of Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir and Delhi. The Central India division, which covers states of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Goa, has recorded 28 per cent more rainfall than normal.
The South Peninsula division comprising states of Karnataka, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Andaman and Nicobar islands and the Lakshadweep islands have recorded 16 per cent more rainfall.