The Indian Meteorological Department has predicted the current year’s monsoon rainfall at 100 per cent of long-period average, with a deviation of 5 per cent.
IMD’s monsoon forecast for expected rainfall in 2020 has brought a ray of hope for the Indian economy severely battered by the fallout of coronavirus and extended lockdown. The Indian Meteorological Department has predicted the current year’s monsoon rainfall at 100 per cent of the long-period average, with a deviation of 5 per cent. A 100% rainfall is considered to be ‘normal’, per the IMD’s definitions. The optimistic forecast on monsoon is expected to give support to agriculture and allied sectors at a time when the slowdown is visible in all the corners of the economy.
IMD has predicted that monsoon is expected to hit Kerala’s Thiruvananthapuram on June 1 and has revised the onset and withdrawal date of monsoon in several other several parts of India. In Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Telegana, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, and parts of Uttar Pradesh, monsoon is expected to be delayed by 3-7 days, compared to the existing normal dates. However, over extreme northwest India, the monsoon may come a little earlier, on 8th July compared to the existing date of 15th July. The monsoon is also expected to stay till October 15.
The rainfall pattern becomes very crucial for the economy as it affects the amount of available irrigated area, which in turn affects agricultural yield. Rainfall also has a major role to determine the food inflation trajectory and its impact is visible for a couple of months, RBI said in a study. In another major development, the Ministry of Home Affairs has allowed the agriculture and allied industries to fully operate from April 20.