Private weather forecaster Skymet on Tuesday predicted that the coming monsoon (June-September) is likely to remain ‘above normal’ and revised the the benchmark Long Period Average (LPA) from 105 per cent to 109 per cent (error margin of +/-4%).
In a month-wise prediction, Skymet stated that during June and July, the monsoon would be 87 per cent and 108 per cent of LPA while for the months of August and September, the cumulative rainfall would be 113 per cent and 123 per cent of LPA respectively. LPA is calculated on the basis of the average annual rainfall (887 millimetre) recorded between 1951 and 2000.
In terms of geographical risk, Skymet suggests that Tamil Nadu, Northeast India and South Interior Karnataka will be at moderate risk through June, July, August and September (JJAS). Good amounts of rainfall are expected in central India and along the West coast. There may be excess rainfall in some pockets of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. Some pockets of Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh could experience less rainfall. Second half of the Monsoon will see better rainfall than the first half. Post-Monsoon, the spell of good rainfall activities will spill over to October.
In the year 2016, the total area under kharif food grains is expected to increase by 15 to 20 per cent over last year. Accordingly, the kharif food grains production is expected to be around 129 to 130 million tonnes.
In 2016, area under oilseeds including soybean, groundnut, pulses (tur, moong and urad) and rice may increase. Area under cotton may reduce marginally while total agricultural land under sugarcane may remain the same as previous year. Area under cotton may reduce marginally however its production is expected to be better.
According to Jatin Singh, CEO, Skymet, “The El Nino is tapering off and it will collapse after the onset of Monsoon. It is not likely to have an adverse impact on the Monsoon performance”.