According to calculations of the IMD, monsoon rains can hit Kerala in the next 4-5 days and will further proceed over Bay of Bangal in next 48 hours.
“Expect monsoon rains to hit Kerala in 4-5 days, will proceed further over Bay of Bengal in next 48 hours”, an IMD official said.
According to IMD, El Nino conditions have turned neutral & in negative territory. There is 50% chance of LaNina during monsoon.
Monsoon rainfall is seen at 106% & July rainfall is seen at 107% of long period average, said IMD. 96% chances of normal-to-excess rainfall from June to September.
“96% chances of normal-to-excess rainfall from June to September,” said the forecaster.
As per IMD’s operational Long Range Forecast (LRF), quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of plus-minus 5 per cent.
Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its prediction said heavy rain and thunderstorms were likely over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, north-eastern states and coastal Andhra Pradesh during the next couple of days. It also predicted thunderstorm accompanied with squall over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, east Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh in next few days.
Monsoon is being eagerly awaited as water levels in the major reservoirs in the country have depleted to alarmingly low levels.
Till last week, water reserves had fallen to 17% of their installed capacity of the reservoirs, while 31% of that capacity was filled up with water at the same time last year.
The news is likely to add cheer to market.
- Rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2016 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is most likely to be above normal (>104% to 110% of long period average (LPA)).
- Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of the long period average with a model error of ±4%.
- Region wise, the season rainfall is likely to be 108% of LPA over North-West India, 113% of LPA over Central India, 113% of LPA over South Peninsula and 94% of LPA over North-East India all with a model error of ± 8 %.
- The monthly rainfall over the country as whole is likely to be 107% of its LPA during July and 104% of LPA during August both with a model error of ± 9 %.