The upcoming bi-monthly policy in June may see the last rate cut for 2019 by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), a global report said.
RBI monetary policy: The upcoming bi-monthly policy in June may see the last rate cut for 2019 by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), even as surging inflation and fiscal deficit concern leaves reduced scope for more action going ahead, global report said. The monetary policy may tighten in early-to-mid-2020, news agency PTI reported citing the IHS Markit report.
The central bank may move with another cut in the interest rates as of now on account of domestic and global growth easing and inflation continuing to remain below the RBI’s inflation target, PTI reported the report as saying.
RBI has already cut interest rate by 25 basis points each in February and April. One basis point is equal to one-hundredth part of a percentage.
The first half of FY20 may gain some support from rise in election spending, monetary policy easing and relaxation of lending rules in the first quarter of 2019, it added.
In the case of a below normal monsoon, the prices of food and fuel may rise in the next few months and the headline inflation may surpass 5 per cent level by the second half of the running year, the report also said. The average inflation would average 4.2 per cent in 2019 and 5.3 per cent in 2020. The monetary tightening cycle also appears to have ended for now, the report said.
Meanwhile, several experts are of the view that RBI may still have some room to bring down repo rate in the first half of fiscal 2020, perhaps in August rather than June as the committee may closely watch the results related to election, monsoons, and budget.