By Dr Jagdish Chandra Rout
Economists and experts in money matters have been opining that all’s not well with the economic scenario globally. Notwithstanding that, it is also reportedly believed and optimistically projected that the global economy is able to keep itself manageable and workable even though at a snail’s pace initially and consequently be alive as a mythic phoenix resurrecting from its dead ashes.
The whole world plunged into the gargantuan grip of the unprecedentedly catastrophic pandemic called COVID-19 in the last quarter of 2019 and lashed out a global lockdown followed by strictest restrictions like social distancing and work-from-home mode imposed or a massive laying-off of the workforce along with production, export, and import business activities screeching to a grinding halt.
When the worldwide sordid state of affairs started inhaling a fresh lease of oxygen and was limping back to normalcy following the vigorous and rigorous mass immunization with double-dose and a booster dose of COVID Vaccines since the onset of 2021, the myopic and war against Ukraine by belligerent Russia (having earned the dubious distinction of a nuke-armed superpower) has added further fuel to the raging fire of recession and inflation when the global economy is in limbo.
The cascading effect of the embroiling Russia-Ukraine fierce confrontation since the beginning of 2022 has reportedly whipped hard “aggressive interest rate hikes and price shocks” resulting in negative and downward growth forecasts. Thus, the high risk of inflation is catapulting the plummeting graph of the endangered economy.
At present, many multinational companies (MNCs) like Twitter, Meta, Amazon, Zomato, Tech-giant Google, IT firms, et al are reportedly on a lay-off spree firing calculated chunks of the workforce. The infamous Crypto citadel has reportedly crumbled down.
Needless to mention the reportedly grim economic scenario of India and the implicit indicator is the devaluation of the Indian rupee consistently against the American dollar. It’s being claimed to be a never-bee fore alarming phenomenon.
Nevertheless, experts in money matters are reportedly pinning high hopes on a ray of hope in the firmament of the world economy that could obviously reflect on our Indian economy front too.
They are hopeful of a saturation point of the worst inflation and a dipping of price pressures in the upcoming new year of 2023.
For instance, noted Barclays Private Bank has reportedly made “a forecast of 1.7% global growth in 2023.”
The policymakers are said to be tightening their belts to evolve out ways and means to tide over the prevalent economic crisis by waging a strategic war against unrelenting inflation. Thus, it is expected that the price pressures would be eased in the year 2023 with every passing month or in a quarterly basis.
A section of economists has also reportedly anticipated: “The global consumer price index (CPI) will remain above the target level in many of the major regions”.
They have also made a forecast of an “average 4.6% global CPI in 2023”.
They reportedly argue that certain factors are conducive to and support global economic recovery.
The factors as per their arguments are: “robust labour market”, “healthy household and corporate balance sheets”, “excess consumer saving” and “chances of service sector recovery”.
Let it be; but till then, let’s wait and watch with bated breath and still perspire amid a strong sense of optimism.
(Dr Jagdish Chandra Rout is the Consultant, Corporate Affairs and Communications. Views are personal)