The volatile trends exhibited in the benchmark stock indices reflect that India is going through a growth slowdown, a report said. So, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) needs to come up with a rate cut of nearly 25 basis points in its June monetary policy review to reverse the ongoing slowdown in the economy, said an SBI research report. The initial trends in sectors including telecom equipment & infra services, agro chemicals, petrochemicals, infrastructure developers & castings, forgings & fasteners show overall fall in Q4FY19, the SBI Ecowrap also said. The rural income is getting hit due to depressed rural prices and weak demand is impacting the FMCG sector.
The muted IIP data on account of contraction of production data in March 2019 after a gap of 21 months shows fall in momentum of both investment and consumption, it added. Sluggishness could also be seen in the core industries including steel, electricity, coal and cement, the report noted. Several leading indicators show that there is a slowdown in the investment and consumption demand, SBI said in the report. The announcement of fresh investment projects have fallen continuously in the previous four years. The numbers have declined to Rs 9.76 lakh crore in fiscal 2019 from Rs 20.86 lakh crore in fiscal 2015. The share of private sector investment surged to 66 per cent in fiscal 2019 from 44 per cent in fiscal 2015.
The GDP growth may be nearly 6.1 to 6.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2019 based on the leading indicators on-year performance, the report added. However, the growth of passenger vehicle, railway traffic, cargo traffic, electricity generation and manufacture of capital goods are indicating falling trend among the leading indicators during the Q4FY1, SBI also said in the report.