Brexit is likely to impact global growth and capital flows, which will have implications on India’s currency, trade and current account, says a survey of fixed-income investors in the country.
The survey by India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) also said that majority of investors expect the bad loan stress in the banking system to end.
According to survey, a majority of investors expect the bad loan stress in the banking system to end by FY 2017-18.
However, 26 per cent (investors) believe it would end only in FY 2018-19 and 22 per cent see it ending after FY19.
“Investors are concerned that geopolitical tension could upset credit markets globally. 29 per cent of investors ranked this as a high risk in FY17,” said Fixed-Income Investor Survey 2QFY17.
It further said the global growth is likely to remain weak, which will impact India’s trade and the current account.
Ind-Ra believes the survey results reflect broader investor concern over high-profile global sources of risk such as Brexit, uncertainty of the future of EU, debt and forex volatility as a fallout of the globally protracted crises, rather than domestic issues,” the rating agency said in a statement.
Ind-Ra said investors believe the most important domestic factor to watch out for in FY 2016-17 is the progress of monsoon.
“24 per cent of investors rate monsoon as the key factor to watch out,” it explained.
According to the rating agency, respondents believe that the deterioration in asset quality of banks poses the highest risk to credit markets in FY 2016-17.
According to Ind-Ra survey, investors choose government securities (G-sec) over all other assets and least prefer to hold on to cash in the current market.
The survey garnered 46 responses during the period May 23 to June 24, 2016. A majority of the respondents were decision makers of active fixed income investment institutions, namely mutual funds, pension and insurance funds, while 17 per cent were major domestic bond investors from banks.
“34 per cent of investors rank G-sec as the most preferred asset to invest into relative to others,” it said.