In the quarter that ended September, only India and the UK are expected to post results that show an acceleration from the previous quarter.
The real GDP growth of India in the December-ending quarter is expected to be the highest among G7 and BRICS nations. Even in the quarter that ended September, where most of the world’s biggest economies are expected to show weak results, only India and the UK are expected to post results that show an acceleration from the previous quarter, says a report by the Economist Intelligence Unit. The global economy is going through a slowdown and since the 2008 financial crisis, it is set to grow at its slowest pace this year. The International Monetary Fund has predicted global growth of just 3 per cent, down 0.2 percent from the previous forecast in July.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had said in a press conference that India’s economy was still growing at the fastest pace in the world and the slowdown is caused by many global factors apart from the domestic demand and investment crisis. Now, the Economist Intelligence Unit report has fallen in-line with the FM’s statement. Also, the new measures that Nirmala Sitharaman has announced since August are expected to show the results on the ground and are poised to push India’s economic growth.
However, on the other side, the world’s largest economies — Argentina and Germany, are expected to be in recession once December-ending quarter data are released. Argentina is already in recession and the possibility of a positive quarter of growth until the second or third quarters of 2020 is less likely.
Recession risks are also high in Japan, where the EIU report predicts a fourth-quarter growth rate of -0.5 per cent and any further downward shocks to the Japanese economy in early 2020 could cause the recessionary threshold of two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Italy and Finland are also expected to face a similar recession risk, with zero growth forecast in the third quarter.