India Q4 GDP preview: Rural FMCG growth looking robust, to grow at 10.5% this year, says report

By: | Published: May 31, 2018 9:58 AM

India Q4 GDP data today: Even as India gears up for Q4 GDP data to be released by CSO later today, the consumer goods sector seems to be back on the growth track led by a pick-up in rural consumption.

In India, for a long time now, rural markets have clocked a higher growth than urban markets, Sameer Shukla of Nielsen said. 

India Q4 GDP data today: Even as India gears up for Q4 GDP data to be released by CSO later today, the consumer goods sector seems to be back on the growth track led by a pick-up in rural consumption, according to a report. Noting that after several quarters of stress in the aftermath of demonetisation and the rollout of GST, India’s rural FMCG industry looks prospects look robust, as the report by Nielsen estimated that the fast-moving consumer goods market in India will grow at 10.5 percent in FY2018.

“In India, for a long time now, rural markets have clocked a higher growth than urban markets mainly because the headroom for growth is bigger for the rural space and affordability and awareness is growing there” Sameer Shukla, executive director, retail measurement services, South Asia, at Nielsen said.

A recent Icra report had expected GDP growth in January-March 2017-18 at 7.4 percent on account of good rabi crop harvest and improved corporate earnings, up from 7.2 percent in the third quarter. Nielsen said that the IMD’s forecast of good monsoon along with higher Minimum Support Price (MSP) announced by the Government for the Kharif crop is expected to give a fillip to rural disposable incomes and would boost rural consumption, going forward.

“The domestic GDP growth rate is expected to improve to 7.4 percent in Q4 FY2018 from 7.2 percent in Q3 FY2018, exceeding the implicit forecast of 7.1 percent embedded in the CSO’s Second Advance Estimate of National Income for 2017-18,” Icra said in a recent report.

The robust estimates come after India’s strong show in the previous quarter where economic growth came in at 7.2% as compared with previous two quarters that clocked mere 5.7% growth in Q1 and 6.5% growth in Q2, mainly on the back of disruptions caused by demonetisation and the Goods and Services Tax (GST), and slow agricultural growth. A FICCI survey showed that India’s GDP growth in Q4 could be slightly lower than Q3 at 7.1%.

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