India Q4 GDP Highlights: Jan-Mar GDP growth at 4.1% beats estimates; FY22 economic growth estimate cut to 8.7%

India Q4 2022 GDP Highlights: Economists had estimated India’s Q4 2022 GDP growth to have slowed down to 4% year-on-year, lower than Q3 readings of 5.4%, according to a Reuters poll of economists.

Nominal GDP on which key budget numbers are benchmarked, grew by a sharp 19.5% in 2021-22 to Rs 236.64 trillion, against 17.6% estimated earlier.

India Q4 GDP Highlights: India’s GDP growth fell to 4.1% in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal year, its slowest pace in a year. The economic growth, however, beat the forecast. For the full fiscal year 2022, the National Statistical Office (NSO) said it has cut economic growth estimate to 8.7%, lower than earlier expectations of 8.9%, NSO said in a statement Tuesday. January to March quarter GDP readings showed that economic growth was slightly higher than economists expectations of 4% growth, according to a Reuters poll of economists. In comparison, Asia’s third largest economy grew at 20.3%, 8.5% and 5.4% respectively in the first three quarters of the fiscal year 2022.

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18:24 (IST) 31 May 2022
Capex, private consumption rebounds in Q4: Anand Rathi

“The Q4 FY22 at 4.1% and FY22 GDP growth at 8.7% came marginally lower than our expectations. Moreover, the growth comes against the negative base of the pandemic year. Yet, there are several positive indicators as well. The rebound in capex in FY22 is the biggest positive. Even private consumption shows signs of improvement,” Sujan Hajra, Chief Economist and Executive Director, Anand Rathi Shares & Stock Brokers said.

18:20 (IST) 31 May 2022
DBS Bank sees double digit GDP growth in June quarter

“We don't expect this outcome (easing of GDP growth to 4.1%) to materially disrupt the central bank's policy normalisation plans. This subdued reading is likely to be followed by a strong double-digit growth in June'22 quarter on base effects.” Radhika Rao, Senior Economist, DBS Bank told Reuters.

18:16 (IST) 31 May 2022
Kotak Institutional Equities sees FY 2023 GDP growth at 7.3%

“We expect FY2023 GDP growth to be around 7.3% with much of the growth being propped up by 1QFY23 print. While taming inflationary pressures will be the primary target, it is unlikely that policy makers will take their eyes of the growth trajectory, especially as recovery is gradual and uneven,” Suvodeep Rakshit, Senior Economist at Kotak Institutional Equities said.

18:14 (IST) 31 May 2022
Growth better than estimates

The Q4 & FY22 growth rate has been better than most estimates. GDP for FY22 rose 8.7% vs a contraction of 6.6% YoY, this was the highest growth rate in the previous five years. The Jan-March quarter GDP grew by 4.1% vs 2.5% YoY, however, on a QoQ basis, it was a dip. The agriculture output growth slowed down YoY, and manufacturing saw an uptick. Most growth was largely on account of a lower base.

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18:11 (IST) 31 May 2022
Q1 2023 GDP estimates will be released in August

The next release of quarterly GDP estimates for the quarter April-June 2022 ie Q1 FY 2023 will be on August 31, 2022.

18:10 (IST) 31 May 2022
GDP growth in Q1 2023 may jump due to lower base effect: Kotak Institutional Equities

“Growth in 1QFY23 will be high given a low base (1QFY22 GDP was hit by second Covid wave),” Suvodeep Rakshit, Senior Economist at Kotak Institutional Equities said.

18:05 (IST) 31 May 2022
Exports grow 24.3%

Exports grew 24.3% on-year basis in the Financial year 2021-22. Exports stood at Rs 31.74 lakh crore.

18:03 (IST) 31 May 2022
January core sector data revised upward

Final growth rate of Index of Eight Core Industries for January 2022 is revised to 4.0% from its provisional level 3.7%. The growth rate of ICI during April-March 2021-22 was 10.4% (P) as compared to the corresponding period of last FY.

17:57 (IST) 31 May 2022
Q4 GDP readings in line with expectations, outlook clouded: Kotak

“While the readings have broadly come In line with expectations, The outlook remains clouded with uncertainties especially with escalating crude oil prices. Further, weak labor markets, limited ability on additional fiscal spends, reduced corporate margins due to rising input prices and weaker global demand remain a concern,” Upasna Bhardwaj, Economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank said.

17:57 (IST) 31 May 2022
Public Administration, Defence & Other Services

Public Administration, Defence & Other Services sector, that includes the likes of Public Administration, Defence & Other Services saw a growth of 12.6%.

17:56 (IST) 31 May 2022
Private and government expenditure above pre-pandemic levels

Private Final Consumption Expenditure and Government Final Consumption Expenditure rose above the pre pandemic levels in FY 2022. PFCE stood at Rs 83.7 lakh crore in the last fiscal year while GFCE stood at Rs 15.77 lakh crore.

17:53 (IST) 31 May 2022
Gross Fixed Capital Formation

Gross Fixed Capital Formation, another major contributor to the GDP, was at Rs 47.84 lakh crore.

17:51 (IST) 31 May 2022
Government Final Consumption Expenditure

Government Final Consumption Expenditure in the fiscal year under review stood at Rs 15.77 lakh crore, against Rs 15.37 lakh crore last year.

17:50 (IST) 31 May 2022
Private Final Consumption Expenditure

Private Final Consumption Expenditure in FY22 stood at Rs 83.77 lakh crore against Rs 77.63 lakh crore last year.

17:48 (IST) 31 May 2022
Q4 GVA growth

In the Fourth Quarter of FY22 GVA grew 3.9% against a growth of 4.7% in the previous quarter.

17:45 (IST) 31 May 2022
GVA growth

Gross value added at basic prices saw a growth of 8.1% on-year basis in the financial year ending March 2022.

17:42 (IST) 31 May 2022
Trade, hotel, transportation, communication & services relating to broadcast

Trade, hotel, transportation, communication & services relating to broadcast saw a massive improvement with a growth of 11.1% on year against a decline of 20.2% in the previous fiscal year.

17:41 (IST) 31 May 2022
Construction sector

The construction sector saw a growth of 11.5% on-year basis in FY22.

17:40 (IST) 31 May 2022
Electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services

Electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services sector registered a growth of 7.5% on year in the previous fiscal year that ended March 2022.

17:39 (IST) 31 May 2022
Manufacturing sector growth

The manufacturing sector registered a growth of 9.9% on-year basis.

17:38 (IST) 31 May 2022
Mining and quarrying

Mining and quarrying sector saw a growth of 11.5% on year against a decline of 8.6% last year

17:37 (IST) 31 May 2022
Agriculture sector growth

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing sector grew at 3% on year basis.

17:35 (IST) 31 May 2022
Growth slows down

India's GDP grew at 4.1% in the January-march quarter, lower than the 5.4% on year growth registered in the December quarter.

17:34 (IST) 31 May 2022
Real GDP at Rs 147.36 lakh crore

Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2021-22 is estimated to attain a level of Rs 147.36 lakh crore, as against the First Revised Estimate of Rs 135.58 lakh crore for the year 2020-21, released on 31.01.2022. The growth in GDP during 2021-22 is estimated at 8.7% as compared to a contraction of 6.6% in 2020-21.

17:33 (IST) 31 May 2022
GDP at Rs 40.78 lakh crore

GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q4 2021-22 is estimated at Rs 40.78 lakh crore, as against Rs 39.18 lakh crore in Q4 2020-21, showing a growth of 4.1%.

17:32 (IST) 31 May 2022
India’s GDP grew at 4.1% in Q4

India's GDP grew at 4.1% in the January-March quarter of the previous fiscal year, FY22 GDP at 8.7%.

17:30 (IST) 31 May 2022
Eight core sector up by 8.4%

The combined Index of Eight Core Industries stood at 143.2 in April 2022, which is an increase of 8.4 per cent (provisional) as compared to the Index of April 2021. The production of Coal, Electricity, Refinery Products, Fertilizers, Cement and Natural Gas industries increased in April 2022 over the corresponding period of last year.

17:21 (IST) 31 May 2022
Centre clears entire GST compensation due till date

The Government of India has released the entire amount of GST compensation payable to States up to 31st May, 2022 by releasing an amount of Rs 86,912 crores. This decision was taken to assist the States in managing their resources and ensuring that their programmes especially the expenditure on capital is carried out successfully during the financial year. This decision has been taken despite the fact that only about Rs 25,000 crore is available in the GST Compensation Fund. The balance is being released by the Centre from its own resources pending collection of Cess.

17:19 (IST) 31 May 2022
IMF may cut India’s GDP 2022 growth forecast below 8.2%

The IMF is in the process of revising India's growth projection for 2022, which could be lower than its earlier forecast of 8.2 percent, amid risks of global stagflation, a senior official of the international organization told PTI on Tuesday.

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17:17 (IST) 31 May 2022
Q4 2022 GDP data to be published shortly

India to report Q4 2022 GDP data shortly. NSO is scheduled to release the data at 5:30 PM Tuesday.

17:03 (IST) 31 May 2022
Agriculture, manufacturing to bear the brunt of slow growth in Q4 2022

In terms of sectors, growth in mining, manufacturing, industry and contact-intensive sectors are expected to have moderated in Q4 due to supply chain crunch and rising prices of input goods, economists and experts said.

Agriculture sector, which employs the largest number of people, also slowed down as prices of raw materials such as fertilisers rose and movement of people back to the urban centres increased after the reopening of the economy.

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17:00 (IST) 31 May 2022
GDP growth rate so far in FY 2022

Quarterly GDP rate in India, Asia’s third largest economy, was at 20.3%, 8.5% and 5.4% in Q1, Q2 and Q3 respectively in the fiscal year 2022. If the Ministry of Statistics March quarter readings show that the growth rate slowed down to 4%, as economists have forecast, it would be slowest pace in a year.

16:49 (IST) 31 May 2022
Mining sector growth to slow down

Mining and quarrying sector to grow at 8.7%, according to Barclay's estimates. The sector had grown 8.8% last quarter. Mining output to slowdown due to supply shortages, economists at Barclay's said.

16:48 (IST) 31 May 2022
Modi’s 8 years and the economy

Prime Minister Narendra Modi completed eight years in office on May 26. There isn’t any doubt that a broadening and deepening of the welfare state has allowed him to retain unmatched levels of popularity. The economic track record, however, could have been much better.

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16:38 (IST) 31 May 2022
Bharat to feel the pain

“In terms of the sectoral breakdown, we expect weakness in the rural economy to have persisted in Q1 FY22, as workers moving from rural areas to urban centres for employment, and higher input costs weighed on both farming and non-farming activity. We expect agriculture growth to slip to 2.5% in Q1 FY22, from 2.6% in Q4 21,” said Rahul Bajoria of Barclay's.

16:37 (IST) 31 May 2022
ICRA sees excise duty cut, subsidies, and lower RBI surplus transfer a risk to FY 2023 Fiscal deficit target

“There are several risks to the fiscal deficit target of Rs. 16.6 trillion (6.4% of GDP) for FY2023, emanating from the revenue loss to the Centre on account of the excise duty cut, lower-than-budgeted transfer of the RBI’s surplus, and the need for additional spending on food, fertilizer and LPG subsidies through the year,” ICRA's Aditi Nayar said.

16:35 (IST) 31 May 2022
High tax revenue, lower capital spending helped in containing fiscal deficit: ICRA

” The Provisional data indicates that the fiscal deficit of the Government of India (GoI) was contained marginally below the FY2022 revised estimate, benefitting from the higher tax (+Rs. 0.55 trillion) and non tax (+Rs. 0.34 trillion) revenue receipts and lower capital spending (-Rs. 0.1 trillion), which absorbed the deficit in non debt capital receipts (-Rs. 0.61 trillion) and higher revenue expenditure (+Rs. 0.34 trillion),” Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA Limited said.

16:30 (IST) 31 May 2022
Nifty, Sensex snap 3-day rally to end in red ahead of Q4 GDP data

Indian benchmark indices BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 snapped a 3-day winning streak on Tuesday to end lower in a highly volatile session ahead of the Q4 GDP data release.

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16:14 (IST) 31 May 2022
Capex increases

March CAPEX at Rs 1.7 lakh crore against Rs 20,000 crore a year ago.

16:13 (IST) 31 May 2022
Tax revenue

April tax revenue stood at Rs 2.3 lakh crore

16:10 (IST) 31 May 2022
Fiscal deficit

FY22 fiscal deficit came in at at 6.7% vs 6.9%. The fiscal deficit stands at Rs 15.87 lakh crore

16:06 (IST) 31 May 2022
RBI says India’s economy losing steam

The Reserve Bank of India expressed concerns that the economy might be losing steam, pointing out that high frequency indicators are beginning to reflect some loss of momentum in its annual report released last week.

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15:57 (IST) 31 May 2022
Ahead of GDP data release IMD predicts normal monsoon

Ahead of release of India's economic growth report card, IMD said India will likely see normal monsoon rains this year. Economists and experts have pinned high hopes on monsoons to elevate pressure of high food prices. High inflation is already biting consumer spending and investments and it could further underpin the country's growth rate.

15:54 (IST) 31 May 2022
Moody’s: Q4 growth likely at 4%; high food, oil prices to hurt spending

Moody's said India’s March-quarter growth is likely to have settled at 4% year on year, moderating from 5.4% in the prior quarter.

“The rise in crude oil, food and fertiliser prices will weigh on household finances and spending in the months ahead,” the rating agency said in a note.

15:53 (IST) 31 May 2022
India’s economic growth projections trimmed

Earlier this month, Moody's slashed India's economic growth forecast to 8.8% for 2022 from 9.1% earlier, citing high inflation.

15:46 (IST) 31 May 2022
India has become one of fastest growing economies in world: PM Modi

Ahead of the release of official GDP readings, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Monday that coming out of the negative impact of Covid pandemic, India has become one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Experts see growth to have slowed down as a result of the omicron variant and rising crude oil prices due to the Ukraine war.

15:46 (IST) 31 May 2022
How were India’s GDP numbers last quarter?

India’s gross domestic product (GDP) had grown by a lower-than-expected rate of 5.4% on year in the December quarter on a flat base.

15:43 (IST) 31 May 2022
Experts view on Q4 GDP growth

Here's what experts peg India's economic report card to show in Q4 readings:

SBI Research: Sees 2.7% GDP growth in Q4, 8.5% in FY 2022

Barclays: Sees 3.7% GDP growth in Q4

ICRA: Sees 3.5% Q4 GDP growth

15:39 (IST) 31 May 2022
Economists see Q4 GDP to be about 4%: Reuters poll

Economists have forecast that India’s GDP growth for the January to March quarter is expected to be in the bracket of about 2.7% to 5.5%. According to a Reuters poll of 46 economists, India's GDP growth in fourth quarter is expected to be at the slowed pace in the year, and is estimated to be 4%.

15:34 (IST) 31 May 2022
Government to release Q4 GDP data at 5:30 pm

Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation will release the Q4 2022 GDP readings at 5:30 pm Tuesday.

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