India Q4 GDP Highlights: India’s GDP growth fell to 4.1% in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal year, its slowest pace in a year. The economic growth, however, beat the forecast. For the full fiscal year 2022, the National Statistical Office (NSO) said it has cut economic growth estimate to 8.7%, lower than earlier expectations of 8.9%, NSO said in a statement Tuesday. January to March quarter GDP readings showed that economic growth was slightly higher than economists expectations of 4% growth, according to a Reuters poll of economists. In comparison, Asia’s third largest economy grew at 20.3%, 8.5% and 5.4% respectively in the first three quarters of the fiscal year 2022.
“The Q4 FY22 at 4.1% and FY22 GDP growth at 8.7% came marginally lower than our expectations. Moreover, the growth comes against the negative base of the pandemic year. Yet, there are several positive indicators as well. The rebound in capex in FY22 is the biggest positive. Even private consumption shows signs of improvement,” Sujan Hajra, Chief Economist and Executive Director, Anand Rathi Shares & Stock Brokers said.
“We don't expect this outcome (easing of GDP growth to 4.1%) to materially disrupt the central bank's policy normalisation plans. This subdued reading is likely to be followed by a strong double-digit growth in June'22 quarter on base effects.” Radhika Rao, Senior Economist, DBS Bank told Reuters.
“We expect FY2023 GDP growth to be around 7.3% with much of the growth being propped up by 1QFY23 print. While taming inflationary pressures will be the primary target, it is unlikely that policy makers will take their eyes of the growth trajectory, especially as recovery is gradual and uneven,” Suvodeep Rakshit, Senior Economist at Kotak Institutional Equities said.
The Q4 & FY22 growth rate has been better than most estimates. GDP for FY22 rose 8.7% vs a contraction of 6.6% YoY, this was the highest growth rate in the previous five years. The Jan-March quarter GDP grew by 4.1% vs 2.5% YoY, however, on a QoQ basis, it was a dip. The agriculture output growth slowed down YoY, and manufacturing saw an uptick. Most growth was largely on account of a lower base.
~ Nish Bhatt, Founder & CEO, Millwood Kane International
The next release of quarterly GDP estimates for the quarter April-June 2022 ie Q1 FY 2023 will be on August 31, 2022.
“Growth in 1QFY23 will be high given a low base (1QFY22 GDP was hit by second Covid wave),” Suvodeep Rakshit, Senior Economist at Kotak Institutional Equities said.
Exports grew 24.3% on-year basis in the Financial year 2021-22. Exports stood at Rs 31.74 lakh crore.
Final growth rate of Index of Eight Core Industries for January 2022 is revised to 4.0% from its provisional level 3.7%. The growth rate of ICI during April-March 2021-22 was 10.4% (P) as compared to the corresponding period of last FY.
“While the readings have broadly come In line with expectations, The outlook remains clouded with uncertainties especially with escalating crude oil prices. Further, weak labor markets, limited ability on additional fiscal spends, reduced corporate margins due to rising input prices and weaker global demand remain a concern,” Upasna Bhardwaj, Economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank said.
Public Administration, Defence & Other Services sector, that includes the likes of Public Administration, Defence & Other Services saw a growth of 12.6%.
Private Final Consumption Expenditure and Government Final Consumption Expenditure rose above the pre pandemic levels in FY 2022. PFCE stood at Rs 83.7 lakh crore in the last fiscal year while GFCE stood at Rs 15.77 lakh crore.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation, another major contributor to the GDP, was at Rs 47.84 lakh crore.
Government Final Consumption Expenditure in the fiscal year under review stood at Rs 15.77 lakh crore, against Rs 15.37 lakh crore last year.
Private Final Consumption Expenditure in FY22 stood at Rs 83.77 lakh crore against Rs 77.63 lakh crore last year.
In the Fourth Quarter of FY22 GVA grew 3.9% against a growth of 4.7% in the previous quarter.
Gross value added at basic prices saw a growth of 8.1% on-year basis in the financial year ending March 2022.
Trade, hotel, transportation, communication & services relating to broadcast saw a massive improvement with a growth of 11.1% on year against a decline of 20.2% in the previous fiscal year.
The construction sector saw a growth of 11.5% on-year basis in FY22.
Electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services sector registered a growth of 7.5% on year in the previous fiscal year that ended March 2022.
The manufacturing sector registered a growth of 9.9% on-year basis.
Mining and quarrying sector saw a growth of 11.5% on year against a decline of 8.6% last year
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing sector grew at 3% on year basis.
India's GDP grew at 4.1% in the January-march quarter, lower than the 5.4% on year growth registered in the December quarter.
Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2021-22 is estimated to attain a level of Rs 147.36 lakh crore, as against the First Revised Estimate of Rs 135.58 lakh crore for the year 2020-21, released on 31.01.2022. The growth in GDP during 2021-22 is estimated at 8.7% as compared to a contraction of 6.6% in 2020-21.
GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q4 2021-22 is estimated at Rs 40.78 lakh crore, as against Rs 39.18 lakh crore in Q4 2020-21, showing a growth of 4.1%.
India's GDP grew at 4.1% in the January-March quarter of the previous fiscal year, FY22 GDP at 8.7%.
The combined Index of Eight Core Industries stood at 143.2 in April 2022, which is an increase of 8.4 per cent (provisional) as compared to the Index of April 2021. The production of Coal, Electricity, Refinery Products, Fertilizers, Cement and Natural Gas industries increased in April 2022 over the corresponding period of last year.
The Government of India has released the entire amount of GST compensation payable to States up to 31st May, 2022 by releasing an amount of Rs 86,912 crores. This decision was taken to assist the States in managing their resources and ensuring that their programmes especially the expenditure on capital is carried out successfully during the financial year. This decision has been taken despite the fact that only about Rs 25,000 crore is available in the GST Compensation Fund. The balance is being released by the Centre from its own resources pending collection of Cess.
The IMF is in the process of revising India's growth projection for 2022, which could be lower than its earlier forecast of 8.2 percent, amid risks of global stagflation, a senior official of the international organization told PTI on Tuesday.
India to report Q4 2022 GDP data shortly. NSO is scheduled to release the data at 5:30 PM Tuesday.
In terms of sectors, growth in mining, manufacturing, industry and contact-intensive sectors are expected to have moderated in Q4 due to supply chain crunch and rising prices of input goods, economists and experts said.
Agriculture sector, which employs the largest number of people, also slowed down as prices of raw materials such as fertilisers rose and movement of people back to the urban centres increased after the reopening of the economy.
Quarterly GDP rate in India, Asia’s third largest economy, was at 20.3%, 8.5% and 5.4% in Q1, Q2 and Q3 respectively in the fiscal year 2022. If the Ministry of Statistics March quarter readings show that the growth rate slowed down to 4%, as economists have forecast, it would be slowest pace in a year.
Mining and quarrying sector to grow at 8.7%, according to Barclay's estimates. The sector had grown 8.8% last quarter. Mining output to slowdown due to supply shortages, economists at Barclay's said.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi completed eight years in office on May 26. There isn’t any doubt that a broadening and deepening of the welfare state has allowed him to retain unmatched levels of popularity. The economic track record, however, could have been much better.
“In terms of the sectoral breakdown, we expect weakness in the rural economy to have persisted in Q1 FY22, as workers moving from rural areas to urban centres for employment, and higher input costs weighed on both farming and non-farming activity. We expect agriculture growth to slip to 2.5% in Q1 FY22, from 2.6% in Q4 21,” said Rahul Bajoria of Barclay's.
“There are several risks to the fiscal deficit target of Rs. 16.6 trillion (6.4% of GDP) for FY2023, emanating from the revenue loss to the Centre on account of the excise duty cut, lower-than-budgeted transfer of the RBI’s surplus, and the need for additional spending on food, fertilizer and LPG subsidies through the year,” ICRA's Aditi Nayar said.
” The Provisional data indicates that the fiscal deficit of the Government of India (GoI) was contained marginally below the FY2022 revised estimate, benefitting from the higher tax (+Rs. 0.55 trillion) and non tax (+Rs. 0.34 trillion) revenue receipts and lower capital spending (-Rs. 0.1 trillion), which absorbed the deficit in non debt capital receipts (-Rs. 0.61 trillion) and higher revenue expenditure (+Rs. 0.34 trillion),” Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA Limited said.
Indian benchmark indices BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 snapped a 3-day winning streak on Tuesday to end lower in a highly volatile session ahead of the Q4 GDP data release.
March CAPEX at Rs 1.7 lakh crore against Rs 20,000 crore a year ago.
April tax revenue stood at Rs 2.3 lakh crore
FY22 fiscal deficit came in at at 6.7% vs 6.9%. The fiscal deficit stands at Rs 15.87 lakh crore
The Reserve Bank of India expressed concerns that the economy might be losing steam, pointing out that high frequency indicators are beginning to reflect some loss of momentum in its annual report released last week.
Ahead of release of India's economic growth report card, IMD said India will likely see normal monsoon rains this year. Economists and experts have pinned high hopes on monsoons to elevate pressure of high food prices. High inflation is already biting consumer spending and investments and it could further underpin the country's growth rate.
Moody's said India’s March-quarter growth is likely to have settled at 4% year on year, moderating from 5.4% in the prior quarter.
“The rise in crude oil, food and fertiliser prices will weigh on household finances and spending in the months ahead,” the rating agency said in a note.
Earlier this month, Moody's slashed India's economic growth forecast to 8.8% for 2022 from 9.1% earlier, citing high inflation.
Ahead of the release of official GDP readings, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Monday that coming out of the negative impact of Covid pandemic, India has become one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Experts see growth to have slowed down as a result of the omicron variant and rising crude oil prices due to the Ukraine war.
India’s gross domestic product (GDP) had grown by a lower-than-expected rate of 5.4% on year in the December quarter on a flat base.
Here's what experts peg India's economic report card to show in Q4 readings:
SBI Research: Sees 2.7% GDP growth in Q4, 8.5% in FY 2022
Barclays: Sees 3.7% GDP growth in Q4
ICRA: Sees 3.5% Q4 GDP growth
Economists have forecast that India’s GDP growth for the January to March quarter is expected to be in the bracket of about 2.7% to 5.5%. According to a Reuters poll of 46 economists, India's GDP growth in fourth quarter is expected to be at the slowed pace in the year, and is estimated to be 4%.
Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation will release the Q4 2022 GDP readings at 5:30 pm Tuesday.