India Q1 GDP Shocker | HIGHLIGHTS: Economy slumps to 6-year low, GDP growth slows to 5%; misses estimates

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Updated:Aug 30, 2019 7:24:25 pm

India Q1 GDP Data Announcement Today HIGHLIGHTS: The Central Statistics Office (CSO) released India’s economic growth figures for the April-June quarter of FY20 on Friday.

Q1 GDP Data Live, Q1 GDP Numbers LiveThe RBI had projected India’s GDP growth for FY20 at 6.9 per cent, in the range of 5.8-6.6 per cent for the first half and 7.3-7.5 per cent for the second half of FY20.

India Q1 GDP Growth Data HIGHLIGHTS: The Central Statistics Office (CSO) released India’s economic growth figures for the April-June quarter of FY20 on  Friday. The growth slowed down to 5 per cent in the fiurst quarter of the ongoing fiscal.In the last quarter of fiscal year 2019, the economy grew at 5.8 per cent. The decelaration in private consumption largely contibuted to such a substantial fall in the GDP number. RBI had projected India’s GDP growth for FY20 at 6.9 per cent, in the range of 5.8-6.6 per cent for the first half and 7.3-7.5 per cent for the second half of FY20. The government has already announced a slew of measures last week to boost demand in the economy.

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Highlights

    19:24 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    Second half of the year is expected to see some pickup in demand

    The second half of the year is expected to see some pickup in demand with the festive season and favourable monsoons so far this year could lead to improved rural income. These measures and seasonal factors are likely to revive the growth going forward.CARE Ratings is expecting the GDP growth to be around 6.7% - 6.8% for the fiscal year 2019-20.

    19:13 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    RBI had lowered GDP projections

    The Reserve Bank had marginally lowered the GDP growth projection for 2019-20 to 6.9 per cent from 7 per cent projected earlier in the June policy, and underlined the need for addressing growth concerns by boosting aggregate demand. "Real GDP growth for 2019-20 is revised downwards from 7 per cent in the June policy to 6.9 per cent - in the range of 5.8-6.6 per cent for first half of 2019-20 and 7.3-7.5 per cent for the second half - with risks somewhat tilted to the downside," RBI had said in its monetary policy statement.

    18:43 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    Trade war, global slowdown led to GDP slowdown, says CEA

    Trade wars and global slowdown are the key reasons behind the slowdown in the economy in the first quarter of the ongoing fiscal, said CEA Subramanian.

    18:39 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    Government remains committed to stick to its glide path of fiscal deficit, says CEA

    Government remains committed to stick to its glide path of fiscal deficit, said CEA.

    18:38 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    Govt very much alive to what is happening in economy, says CEA

    The government is very much alive to what must happen in short run and what to do in the long run, said CEA K Subramanian.

    18:36 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    Government is taking all the necessary steps to tackle the slowdown., says CEA Krishnamurthy Subramanian

    Government is taking all the necessary steps to tackle the slowdown., said CEA Krishnamurthy Subramanian. We expect investments to be picking up and expect it to happen in the forthcoming quarters, he added.

    18:35 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    GVA and GDP growth are expected to print sub-6.5% in the current fiscal

    "Regardless of the monetary easing and the measures announced so far by the Government to support the economy, some of the constraints to economic growth, including the moderate capacity utilisation levels, cost of land acquisition, and weak outlook for farm incomes, would persist. Although the pace of expansion is expected to rise in the subsequent quarters from the multi-year low recorded in Q1 FY2020, GVA and GDP growth are expected to print sub-6.5% in the current fiscal," Aditi Nayar, Principal Economist, ICRA.

    18:32 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    Govt needs to address structural, cyclical issues

    "The government needs to address structural and cyclical issues to address the economic slowdown," Reuters reported citing Devindra Pant, chief economist of India Ratings, an arm of Fitch Ratings, citing a slowdown in the sales of autos and construction and a dip in consumer demand.

    18:29 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    More measures needed given the enormity of problem, says Sujan Hajra

    "GDP growth at 5% in Q1FY20 has been significantly below our expectation. India is now behind not only China but also Philippines and Indonesia in terms of real growth rate. While the slowdown is broad-based, the deterioration is most marked for private consumption and manufacturing. We feel that India would do better in the second-half of FY20. Yet, at least 7.5% growth would be needed in the last two quarters to reach even 6.5% growth for the whole year, which looks an uphill task. RBI Annual Report argued that the current slowdown in India is cyclical. We, however, feel that there are structural components also. Government and RBI have recently initiated numerous measures to improve the growth situation. But we think more significant measures would be needed given the enormity of the task?" Sujan Hajra, Chief Economist and Executive Director, Anand Rathi Shares & Stock Brokers.

    18:25 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    Government final consumption expenditure

    Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at Current Prices is estimated at Rs 6.07 lakh crore in Q1 2019-20 as against Rs 5.41 lakh crore in Q1 2018-19.At Constant (2011-12) Prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs 4.22lakhcrore in Q1 of 2019-20 as against Rs 3.88 lakh crore in Q1 2018-19. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCE at Current and Constant (2011-12) Prices during Q1 2019-20 are estimated at 12.4 percent and11.8 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rate of11.9 percent and11.4 percent,respectively, in Q1 2018-19.

    18:22 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    Economic activities which registered growth of over 7 percent in Q1 of FY20

    The economic activities which registered growth of over 7 percent in Q1 of 2019-20 over Q1 of 2018-19 are ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services’, ‘Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services Related to Broadcasting’ and ‘Public Administration, Defence and Other Services’. The growth in the ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’, ‘Mining and Quarrying’, ‘Manufacturing’, ‘Construction’ and ‘Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services’ is estimated to be 2.0 percent, 2.7 percent, 0.6 percent, 5.7percent, and 5.9 percent, respectively, during this period.

    18:17 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    Reuters poll on GDP

    A Reuters poll of economists had forecast annual growth of 5.7% for April-June, compared with a 5.8% rise the previous quarter. For April-June 2018, India reported 8% growth.

    18:15 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    Overall recovery may take another couple of quarters

    “Given the indications we have seen in the past few months, growth was expected to be slow. However, 5% is far below street estimates of 5.6%-5.7% and does come as a surprise. This was primarily driven by lower growth in private consumption. Manufacturing growth staying almost flat is also worrying and immediate steps are needed to revitalise this sector. An overall recovery may take another couple of quarters as the NBFC sector is still recovering from the liquidity crisis," Gourav Kumar, Principal Research Analyst at FundsIndia.com.

     

    18:12 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    Private Final Consumption Expenditure

    Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at Current Prices is estimated at Rs 28.25 lakh crore in Q1 2019-20 as against Rs 26.60 lakh crore in Q1 2018-19. At Constant (2011-12) Prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs 19.74 lakh crore in Q1 2019-20 as against Rs 19.14 lakh crore in Q1 2018-19. In terms of GDP, the rates of PFCE at Current and Constant (2011-12) Prices during Q1 2019-20 are estimated at 57.7 percent and 55.1 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 58.7 percent and 56.1 percent, respectively, in Q1 2018-19.

    18:07 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    Public Administration, Defence, Other Services

    Quarterly GVA at Basic Pricesfor Q1 2019-20 from this sector grew by 8.5 percent as compared to growth of 7.5 percent in Q1 2018-19. The key indicator of this sector namely, Union Government Revenue Expenditurenet of Interest payments grew by 8.7 percent during Q1 of 2019-20 as compared to 6.0 percent in Q1 of 2018-19.Taxes on products grew by 5.3 percent in Q1 of 2019-20 as compared to 10.2 percent in Q1 of 2018-19.

    18:06 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    China's economic growth in 2019

    China's economic growth was 6.2 per cent in April-June quarter of 2019, which was the weakest expansion in 27 years.

    18:05 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    Previous low in GDP in FY13

    The previous low was recorded at 4.9 per cent in April-June 2012-13. The economic growth was 8 per cent in the same quarter of 2018-19.

    18:02 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    Construction sector

    Quarterly GVA at BasicPricesfor Q1 2019-20 from ‘Construction’ sector grew by 5.7 percent as compared to growth of 9.6 percent in Q1 2018-19. Key indicators of Construction sector, namely, production of Cement, consumption of finished Steel and IIP of Non-Metallic Mineralsregistered growth rates of 1.2 percent, 6.8 percent and (-)1.1 percent respectively, during Q1 of 2019-20 as compared to 16.3 percent, 9.2 percent and 12.3 percent, respectively, in Q1 of 2018-19.

    17:59 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    Electricity, Gas, Water Supply, Other Utility Services

    Quarterly GVA at Basic Pricesfor Q1 2019-20 from ‘Electricity,Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services’ sector grew by 8.6percent as compared to growth of 6.7 percent in Q1 2018-19. The key indicator of this sector, namely IIP of Electricity, registered growth rate of 7.2 percent during Q1 2019-20 as compared to 4.9 percent in Q1 2018-19.

    17:57 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    Manufacturing sector growth

    Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q1 2019-20 from ‘Manufacturing’ sector grew by 0.6 percent as compared to growth of 12.1 percent in Q1 2018-19. The growth of organisedsector (which has a share of more than 75 percent in the Manufacturing sector)was estimated from available data of listed companies with BSE and NSE. The Quasi-Corporate and Unorganized segment (which has a share of more than 20 percent in the Manufacturing sector)has been estimated using IIP of Manufacturing. IIP Manufacturing registered growth rate of 3.2 percent during Q1 of 2019-20 as compared to 5.1 percent during Q1 of 2018-19.

    17:54 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    Mining & Quarrying

    Quarterly GVA at Basic Pricesfor Q1 2019-20 from ‘Mining and Quarrying’ sector grew by 2.7 percent as compared to growth of 0.4 percent in Q1 2018-19.  The key indicators of Mining sector, namely, Production of Coal, Crude Oil & Natural Gas and IIP Mining registered growth rates of2.7percent, (-) 6.8 percent, (-)0.5 percent and 3.0 percent respectively, during Q1 of 2019-20 as compared to 12.9 percent, (-)2.4 percent, 0.1 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively,  during Q1 of 2018-19.

    17:52 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    GDP growth figures

    GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q1 of 2019-20 is estimated at Rs 35.85 lakh crore, as against Rs 34.14lakh crore in Q1 of 2018-19, showing a growth rate of 5.0 percent.  Quarterly GVA at Basic Price at Constant (2011-12) Prices for Q1 of 2019-20 is estimated at Rs 33.48 lakh crore, as against Rs 31.90 lakh crore in Q1 of 2018-19, showing a growth rate of 4.9 percent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.

    17:44 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    Mining sector also sees slump

    Mining sector growth at 2.7% Vs 4.2% (QoQ), Vs 0.4% (YoY)

    17:42 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    Economy growth slumps to new low

    India's economic growth slows to 5% in April-June from 8% a year ago, the government data said.  The manufacturing sector growth at 0.6% Vs 3.1% (QoQ), Vs 12.1% (YoY)

    17:30 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    India's economic growth slowed to 6.8 per cent in 2018-19

    india's economic growth slowed to 6.8 per cent in 2018-19 - the slowest pace since 2014-15.

    17:30 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    India's economic growth slowed to 6.8 per cent in 2018-19

    india's economic growth slowed to 6.8 per cent in 2018-19 - the slowest pace since 2014-15.

    17:30 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    India's economic growth slowed to 6.8 per cent in 2018-19

    india's economic growth slowed to 6.8 per cent in 2018-19 - the slowest pace since 2014-15.

    17:22 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    GDP grew at 5-quarter low in Q3 FY19

    With manufacturing, agriculture and small services faltering and government spending slowing, India’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a five-quarter low rate of 6.6% in the September-December period (Q3) of the current fiscal, official data revealed on Thursday. The Central Statistics Office (CSO) also revised down the growth rates for Q1 (from 8.2% to 8%) and Q2 (from 7.1% to 7%) and also that for the full fiscal year to 7% — a five-year trough — from 7.2% in the first advance estimate released in January.

    17:18 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    Wholesale car sales crash to two-decade low

    Demand for cars and bikes appears to have nose-dived to new lows going by the sharp drop in wholesale volumes reported by auto-makers for July. Car makers desptached numbers that were around 30% lower year-on-year, the sharpest monthly fall in nearly two decades. For the first time in two years, Maruti Suzuki reported monthly volumes of below 1 lakh units as its despatches crashed 36.3% y-o-y. Two-wheeler players sent their dealers 15% less stock in July, while commercial vehicle (CV) manufacturers despatched fewer trucks and buses, lower by a sharp 20% y-o-y.

    17:15 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    Slowdown hurting corporates as well

    The ongoing economic slowdown has started hurting corporates as well, with companies reporting a sharp decline in both revenue and profit growth numbers in the June quarter, a report said on Wednesday. India Inc’s net sales growth for the June quarter slid to 4.6 per cent as against 13.5 per cent for the same period last year, while the net profit growth moderated to 6.6 per cent as compared to last year’s 24.6 per cent.

    17:13 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    Slwodown may be deep in economy

    India’s economic growth slowed to 6.8 per cent in 2018-19 – the slowest pace since 2014-15. There are ominous signs showing that slowdown may be deep. Consumer confidence is waning, foreign direct investment has plateaued and international trade and currency war is further aggravating the problem.

    17:13 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    Slwodown may be deep in economy

    India’s economic growth slowed to 6.8 per cent in 2018-19 – the slowest pace since 2014-15. There are ominous signs showing that slowdown may be deep. Consumer confidence is waning, foreign direct investment has plateaued and international trade and currency war is further aggravating the problem.

    16:59 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    High-frequency indicators continue to show familiar pain points

    “High-frequency indicators continue to show familiar pain points – a deep contraction in consumption, weak investment, a slowing external sector and an under-performing services sector,” Nomura said in a research note.

    16:55 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    Auto sale see slowdown

    In Q1 FY20, automobile sales witnessed the sharpest decline of 10.5% y-o-y in the last 5 years. There are several reasons that can be attributed to the this prolonged decline, but the biggest one is the overall week consumer sentiment that is pervasive in the economy. In addition, the crisis in the NBFC space has led to a liquidity squeeze, resulting in a drastic decline in the number of fresh loans to the auto sector.

    16:51 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    Reduction in expenditure may have to be undertaken in Q4 FY2020

    "Over the next few months, funds allocated already in the Union Budget for FY2020 may be spent faster, and additional spending may be incurred following the recent measures announced to arrest the slowdown in economic growth. The transfer of higher-than-expected funds from the RBI should help to offset the expected shortfalls in various tax revenues in FY2020. With only 12% of the BE met in the first four months of the fiscal, it remains unclear whether the ambitious disinvestment target will be achieved. Accordingly, a reduction or deferral in expenditure may have to be undertaken in Q4 FY2020 to prevent a fiscal slippage," Aditi Nayar of ICRA said.

    16:47 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    Fiscal deficit touches Rs 5.47 lakh crore at July-end

    The government's fiscal deficit touched Rs 5.47 lakh crore in the June quarter, which is 77.8 per cent of the budget estimate for 2019-20. In absolute terms, the fiscal deficit or gap between expenditure and revenue was Rs 5,47,605 crore at July-end, as per the data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) on Friday.

    16:42 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    Sensex, Nifty end higher ahead of GDP data

    Equity benchmark BSE Sensex advanced 264 points on Friday, propelled by gains in index heavyweights HDFC, ICICI Bank, HUL and ITC amid positive cues from the global markets. After gyrating 568 points during the day, the 30-share Sensex ended 263.86 points, or 0.71 per cent, higher at 37,332.79. It hit an intra-day high of 37,397.97 and a low of 36,829.81. Similarly, the broader NSE Nifty rose 74.95 points, or 0.68 per cent, to close at 11,023.25.

    16:23 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    CLSA on GDP expectations

    CLSA said that the Q1 gross value added (GVA) growth, which has been 0.2-0.3 percentage points (ppt) lower than the GDP in the last three years, is expected to be not much above the 5.7 percent in the last quarter.

    16:21 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    RBI projects growth downwards

    The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its August ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) slashed the country's GDP growth rate to 6.9 percent from its earlier revised projection of 7 percent. In its June monetary policy, the MPC revised GDP growth rate projection to 7 percent from 7.2 percent.

    16:17 (IST)30 Aug 2019
    India's GDP growth seeing moderation, says FICCI

    The country’s GDP growth has been moderating on account of both global and domestic factors and the prospects over immediate term don’t seem too bright, says the FICCI report.

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