A study of India's investment cycles in the last 60 years by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has revealed that the latest investment upswing will run till 2022-23 to the peak of 33%.
A study of India’s investment cycles in the last 60 years by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has revealed that the latest investment upswing will run till 2022-23 to the peak of 33% from the current rate of 31%. A working paper titled ‘India’s Investment Cycle: An Empirical Investigation’, which studied the pattern since 1950, found that the real investment rate in India followed a three-year cycle, with nine episodes of contraction/upturn of two years.
“The current upturn in the investment cycle is estimated to last up to 2022-23 when the investment rate could rise to 33.0 per cent from the current rate of 31.4 per cent,” the RBI paper said. It said that investment activities in India were heavily influenced by economic activity, real interest rate and bank credit.
“The gross fiscal deficit crowds out investment activity,” the paper noted. Crowding out is a situation where increased interest rates lead to the fall in private investment spending. The investment activity declined sharply from 2011-12 to 2015-16 before beginning to pick-up in 2017.
The investment activity in India was affected by several macro-financial factors such as GDP growth, global GDP growth, bank credit growth etc, the study said. The real interest rate had a direct negative impact on investment levels, while non-food bank credit growth had a positive impact on investments. “A one percentage point increase in the real lending rate reduces the real investment rate in the range of 0.29-0.40 percentage points,” the study concluded.
Going forward, the study suggested, investment activity will need policy efforts on multiple fronts. Improvement in ease of doing business, an expedition of resolution of stressed assets, speeding of stalled projects etc will help in boosting investments in India, the study said. Moreover, there should be some protective measure against uncertainties on the global front and financial market volatility, it added.