HIGHLIGHTS: GDP back series data fuels political row: From Arun Jaitley to Chidambaram, who said what

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Updated:Nov 29, 2018 3:33:37 pm

GDP back series HIGHLIGHTS: In its first reaction after the GDP back series data that marked down the growth rates in the major part of the UPA era was released yesterday, government said that it's wrong to question CSO data.

GDP back series data HIGHLIGHTS: The growth in 2008-09 plunged to 3.1 percent compared to the old series estimate of 3.9 percent, the data said.

GDP back series HIGHLIGHTS: In its first reaction after the GDP back series data that marked down the growth rates in the major part of the UPA era was released yesterday, government said that it’s wrong to question CSO data. “……don’t think any service is being rendered by those who discredit CSO. CSO is a credible organisation & maintains an arm’s length distance from the finance ministry,” Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said.

Former Finance Minister P Chidambaram had earlier slammed the back series GDP data released by the Narendra Modi-led government on Wednesday, saying that the revised GDP numbers are a ‘joke’. ”

According to the new methodology, the average growth rate during the UPA-II regime between 2008-09 and 2012-13 has been revised at 6 percent, while the average growth rate in subsequent five years under the NDA stands at 7.12 percent.

The growth in 2008-09 plunged to 3.1 percent compared to the old series estimate of 3.9 percent, the data said. In 2009-10, GDP growth was at 7.9 percent as per the new series as against the 8.5 percent estimated under the old series. In 2010-11, the new series showed growth at 8.5 percent compared to the estimate of 10.3 percent under the old series.

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Check HIGHLIGHTS: GDP back series data, CSO data, GDP computation, political reactions

Highlights

    15:03 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    Government moved to new base year of 2011-12 from the earlier 2004-05 in January 2015

    In January 2015, the government moved to a new base year of 2011-12 from the earlier 2004-05 for national accounts. The base year of national accounts had been revised earlier in January 2010.

    14:53 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    GDP back series data blurs economic future

    The growth of India’s GDP now depends crucially on which party was in power when the activity occurred – and under which party it was measured.

    Read more: Measuring India growth becomes a political statement; GDP back series data blurs economic future

    14:35 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    Desperate attemp to rewrite GDP data: Ahmed Patel

    “In its desperate attempt to rewrite GDP data, the government resembles the student who cannot pass an exam without cheating,” ET Now reported citing Congress leader Ahmed Patel.

    14:17 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    Rajiv Kumar defends NITI Aayog's involvement in GDP back series data calculation

    Rajiv Kumar defended the involvement of NITI Aayog in the calculation of the new series data.  “NITI Aayog uses data extensively for making logical policy recommendations. The data is always based on assessment & quality check by eminent statisticians,” he posted on Twitter.

    13:32 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    Jaitley defends CSO, says politics over its credibility unbecoming

    The CSO is an independent body and maintains arm's length distance with the Finance Ministry.  He defended the findings of the Central Statistics Office, saying that it is a credible institution and that politics over its credibility was unbecoming.

    13:05 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    Chidambaram calls revision a "hatchet job" by Niti Aayog

    Earlier, Congress leader P Chidambaram had called the revision a "hatchet job" by Niti Aayog. "Now that Niti Aayog has done the hatchet job, it is time to wind up the utterly worthless body," he had tweeted. "The earlier numbers were calculated by the National Statistical Commission. Has the commission been disbanded?", he had said.

    13:01 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    New GDP series more inclusive: Arun Jaitley

    New GDP series far more inclusive and credible, says Finance Minister Arun Jaitley.

    12:42 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    CSO is independent, asserts Arun Jaitley

    CSO is a credible organisation. It maintains an arm’s length distance from the Ministry of Finance, says Arun Jaitley while asserting independence of the statistics body.

    12:41 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    Arun Jaitley backs CSO: Takes a jab at dissenters

    I don't think any service is is being rendered by those who discredit CSO, says Finance Minister Arun Jaitley.

    12:40 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    Same yardstick: Arun Jaitley backs revised GDP figures

    Arun Jaitley says that using the new methodology, GDP growth rates for FY13 and FY14 were revised upwards, and former Finance Minister P Chidambaram had welcomed it then. Jaitley says that same yardstick has been applied by CSO while revising growth downwards.

    12:38 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    Win Some, Lose Some: Arun Jaitley

    You gain in some years, and you lose in some years, says Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, defending the downward revision in GDP growth rates during UPA-era according to GDP back series data.

    12:36 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    Finance Minister Arun Jaitley takes a dig at P Chidambaram

    Finance Minister Arun Jaitley says UPA had welcomed CSO decision when it revised FY13, FY14 GDP growth upwards. It's the same method applying in revising the previous year's figures, he says.

    12:34 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    Arun Jaitley speaks up: Revised GDP data credible

    Finance Minister Arun Jaitley reacts for the first time on GDP back series data after the CSO revised UPA-era economic growth downwards. Data is credible and is uniform, he says.

    12:31 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    Don’t think any service is being rendered by those who discredit CSO: Finance Minister Arun Jaitley

    Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said that he doesn’t think any service is being rendered by those who discredit CSO. CSO is a credible organisation & maintains an arm’s length distance from the finance ministry, he added.

    12:05 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    GDP rate revision during UPA regime triggers political slugfest

    As news methodology revised the average growth rate at 6 percent during the UPA-II regime between 2008-09 and 2012-13 has been revised at 6 percent and the average growth rate in subsequent five years under the NDA at 7.12 percent, a political controversy has erupted just ahead of polls.

    11:51 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    Rajiv Kumar accepts Chidambaram's challenge to debate back series GDP data

    “Hon. @PChidambaram_IN Ji,challenge accepted.Let’s discuss & dissect back series data.I gave 3 hrs of detailed interview yesterday & it is somewhat disingenuous of you to say that I asked the media to not ask questions. Do give more coherent reasons for ur difficulty with new data,” Rajiv Kumar tweeted.

    11:49 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    Pronab Sen would know that MOSPI & Yojana Bhavan worked closely together: Rajiv Kumar

    “NITIAayog uses data extensively for making logical policy recommendations. The data is always based on assessment & quality check by eminent statisticians. Therefore, it was logical for @NITIAayog to provide the platform for its release. Pronab Sen would know that MOSPI & Yojana Bhavan worked closely together,” Rajiv Kumar further said.

    11:41 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    Wrong to say I asked media to not ask questions: NITI Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar

    “Hon. @PChidambaram_IN Ji,challenge accepted.Let’s discuss & dissect back series data.I gave 3 hrs of detailed interview yesterday & it is somewhat disingenuous of you to say that I asked the media to not ask questions. Do give more coherent reasons for ur difficulty with new data,” NITI Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar tweeted.

    11:32 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    MCA-21 data not used for GDP back-series data for 2004-05 2010-11: Senior Economist

    “I have doubts about the consistency of the use of methodology. Maybe, MCA-21 data has not been used for the GDP back-series data for 2004-05 2010-11,” FE reported citing an unidentified senior economist, contrary to CSO claims.

    11:26 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    GDP in old and new series for previous years are largely moving in same levels: Pravin Srivastava

    The nominal GDP in the old and new series for previous years are largely moving in the same levels. The little divergence is on account of recalibration of the economy with the latest data sets, the CSO Pravin Srivastava said.

    11:19 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    Check growth rate for years after 2011-12 as base year for GDP

    Under the back series GDP computation methodology, the growth rate for the years after the new base is estimated to be 5.5 percent (2012-13), 6.4 percent (2013-14), 7.4 percent (2014-15), 8.2 percent (2015-16), 7.1 percent (2016-17) and 6.7 percent (2017-18).

    11:14 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    Back series data using 2011-12 as base year for GDP: key numbers

    According to the CSO data, growth rates for all years between 2005-06 and 2011-12 have been revised downwards -- to 7.9 percent in 2005-06 from 9.3 percent, 8.1 percent in 2006-07 from 9.3 percent, 7.7 percent in 2007-08 from 9.8 percent, 3.1 percent in 2008-09 from 3.9 percent, 7.9 percent in 2009-10 from 8.5 percent, 8.5 percent in 2010-11 from 10.3 percent, and 5.2 percent in 2011-12 from 6.6 percent.

    11:05 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    Government has no intention to 'mislead' using 2011-12 as base year for GDP: Rajiv Kumar

    NITI Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar said the government had no intention to “mislead or try and do something purposefully” which does not reflect the reality.

    11:03 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    Primary sector share higher in 2011-12 as base year for GDP: CSO

    The share of primary sector in total GVA is higher in the new series than in the 2004-05 series due to changes in the data sources, the CSO said.

    10:59 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    Back series using 2011-12 as base year for GDP calculates share of tertiary sector as 4.3% from 5.8% before

    On the basis of 2004-05 series, the share of tertiary sector in Gross Value Added (GVA) was 5.8 percent in 2005-06, which plunged to 4.3 percent as per the 2011-12 series.

    10:56 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    No coincidence, but matter of hard work by CSO officials: Rajiv Kumar

    “No it was not a coincidence. It was a matter of hard work done by the CSO officials who had taken the pain to do all the recalibration of economy that they have done,” said NITI Aayog Vice Chairman on whether it is a coincidence that GDP numbers have been revised downwards only for the UPA period.

    10:52 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    Back series using 2011-12 as base year for GDP revised up growth for 2012-13

    For 2012-13, the back series based on the new base year (2011-12) revised up the GDP growth rate to 5.5 percent from 4.7 percent estimated earlier (2004-05 base year), while for 2013-14, the GDP growth rate was revised up to 6.4 percent from 5 percent estimated earlier.

    10:48 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    New estimates using 2011-12 as base year for GDP better capture economic performance for earlier years: Pravin Srivastava

    Chief statistician Pravin Srivastava asserted that statistically, the new estimates better capture the country’s economic performance for earlier years.  

    10:45 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    New data uses 2011-12 as base year for GDP

    The base year (2011-12) that had been adopted to compute the national income by the CSO to compute the data using the back series.

    10:39 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    New methodology is robust and aligned with UN Standard National Accounts: Pravin Srivastava

    The new methodology is robust and aligned with UN Standard National Accounts, said Pravin Srivastava, Chief Statistician of India. He also said the report of the National Statistical Commission was taken in the “right spirit” but the calculations for the official back series were done jointly by Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) and NITI Aayog.

    10:37 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    Boom in mining followed by bust exaggerated picture of expansion earlier: TCA Anant

    Since mining output was linked to trade under the old series data (with 2004-05 base year), a boom in mining, followed by a bust (after FY11 when restrictions were imposed by several states) tended to exaggerate the picture of expansion earlier. This had to be corrected, said former chief statistician TCA Anant.

    10:34 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    Time to wind up NITI Aayog: P Chidambaram.

    Now that Niti Aayog has done the hatchet job, it is time to wind up the utterly worthless body, said senior Congress leader P Chidambaram.   

    10:31 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    GDP back series data puts NDA back on top

    The back series data released on Wednesday trimmed the expansion rates for the UPA era, using a new methodology and base year (2011-12) that had been adopted to compute the national income.           

    Read more:  GDP back series data puts NDA back on top, trims UPA-era economy growth rates

    10:23 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    Don't read things in political terms, see them in economics terms: TCA Anant

    The NSC Committee’s report was an econometric exercise and not back casting. This is a technical exercise. Please don’t read these things in political terms, they should be seen in economic terms, said former Chief Statistician, TCA Anant.

    10:19 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    New GDP series methodologically superior than older one: Rajiv Kumar

    The new GDP series is methodologically superior than the older one (NSC committee). However, it’s not right to compare the two methodologies, said NITI Aayog, Vice Chairman, Rajiv Kumar.

    10:05 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    ‘New Series’ computed by Niti Aayog has undermined the National Statistical Commission: Randeep Singh Surjewala

    Congress communication department head Randeep Surjewala said, “The new methodology is GVA based, which does not take into account tax plus subsidies and consequently is extremely flawed to subserve the myopic interests of Modi Government. The revised ‘New Series’ computed by Ministry of Statistics/Niti Aayog has undermined the National Statistical Commission, the autonomous body, for deciding data transparently and in accordance with global standards of calculating GDP as per Market Price Linked Methodology."

    10:03 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    Data should have come out 3 years ago: Sudipto Mundle

    Sudipto Mundle, the chairman of the committee on real sector statistics, told The Indian Express, “I am glad it has come out. Should have come out three years ago but MoSPI was not biting the bullet. They have used data which only they could have mined, using proxies rather than going by an econometric method.”

    09:49 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    Better picture of economic performance since UPA era would emerge only after proper study of methodology: Pronab Sen

    Pronab Sen also said a better picture of the economic performance of the country since the UPA era would emerge only after a proper study of the methodology used to deduce real growth in each segment of the economy.

    09:46 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    NITI Aayog's move to release GDP data could set bad precedent: Pronab Sen

    Pronab Sen, former chairman of the National Statistical Commission, questioned the Niti Aayog’s unusual move to release the GDP data, saying it’s the prerogative of the Central Statistics Organisation (Niti Aayog vice chairman Rajiv Kumar along with chief statistician Pravin Srivastava released the back series data with 2011-12 as the base year). The think tank’s move, Sen felt, could set a bad precedent.

    09:39 (IST)29 Nov 2018
    Modi Government and its puppet Niti Aayog want the people to believe that 2 2=8: Congress leader Randeep Singh Surjewala

    Congress leader Randeep Singh Surjewala said that the Modi Government and its puppet Niti Aayog want the people to believe that 2 2=8. Such is the gimmickry, jugglery, trickery and chicanery being sold as ‘back series data.

    Rebasing growth: NDA back on top after GDP revisionIn August, back series data calculated by a sub-committee under the National Statistical Commission showed that the Indian economy clocked over 10% growth during two years of the UPA government, before and after the global financial meltdown of 2008.