Analysts expect RBI to hike rates in 2020, see FY21 fiscal deficit target challenging

By: |
Mumbai | Published: February 3, 2020 5:00 PM

They pointed out that finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman relies a lot on divestments, where the government under-performed in FY2019-20, to achieve the 3.8 per cent fiscal deficit target.

fiscal deficit, fiscal deficit target, RBI rate hike, RBI repo rate hike, nirmala sitharaman, RBI, reserve bankWelcoming the government’s stand, analysts at foreign brokerage Bank of America flagged risks to the target. (Reuters)

Meeting the fiscal deficit target of 3.5 per cent for FY2020-21 is a challenge, and the possible inflationary impact may also result in the RBI hiking rates in the year, analysts said on Monday. They pointed out that finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman relies a lot on divestments, where the government under-performed in FY2019-20, to achieve the 3.8 per cent fiscal deficit target.

With the objective of pushing growth, the government has resorted to using a clause under which it can stretch its commitments under the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act by 0.5 per cent, making it the third consecutive year that it has missed the target. Welcoming the government’s stand, analysts at foreign brokerage Bank of America flagged risks to the target. “We see a 0.30 per cent of GDP upside risk to the fiscal deficit target given the extremely high divestment assumption of Rs 2.10 lakh crore in FY21, almost triple of FY20’s Rs 65,000 crore,” it said.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs said that the achievement of the government’s plan hinges on privatisation initiatives, and added that if the estimates on revenue collections do not come true, it will have to resort to expenditure cuts again. It can be noted that generally, a rise in fiscal deficits is accompanied by a spike in inflation, which is already beyond the RBI’s comfort level. Goldman Sachs said the central bank will shift the stance of the monetary policy to “neutral” from “accommodative” at this week’s review, and there is a possibility of rates hikes as well in 2020.

ALSO READ | Budget 2020: Jump in fiscal deficit does not suggest expansionary policy, says DEA Secy

However, economists at Singapore-based DBS seemed to differ. “We look for the central bank to remain on an extended pause on rates (even as supply-induced shocks dissipate) but maintain an accommodative bias to ensure cost of capital remains stable and favourable,” they said.

Analysts at BofA said against the backdrop of a “limited fiscal slippage”, they expect a second dovish pause from the RBI MPC on Thursday as the headline inflation is likely to fall to 6.7 per cent in January.

Do you know What is Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), Finance Bill, Fiscal Policy in India, Expenditure Budget, Customs Duty? FE Knowledge Desk explains each of these and more in detail at Financial Express Explained. Also get Live BSE/NSE Stock Prices, latest NAV of Mutual Funds, Best equity funds, Top Gainers, Top Losers on Financial Express. Don’t forget to try our free Income Tax Calculator tool.

Financial Express is now on Telegram. Click here to join our channel and stay updated with the latest Biz news and updates.

Next Stories
1India’s Sula Vineyards to export its wines to Singapore, gateway to Southeast Asian wine market
2RBI may go for status quo; announce other measures to boost growth
3Modi’s free food grain scheme reaches doorsteps of poor, migrant labourers amid unprecedented crisis