Amid concerns on falling rupee, rising crude oil prices, inflation, MSP hike, NPAs and trade war, India Ratings revised country’s GDP growth in FY19 to 7.2 percent from earlier projection of 7.4 percent. Along with likely shortfall in disinvestment receipts, shortfall in GST revenues may impact revenues, rating agency said. In or to achieve 3.3 percent fiscal deficit target, the government may compress capital expenditure and social sector spend, the report also said. However, the rural consumption is robust on normal monsoon, the report added. On the recent rate cut on items under GST, the rating agency said that the reduction in rates could help boost household spending.
The rating agency expects private final consumption expenditure to grow 7.6 percent in FY19 compared to 6.6 percent in FY18 at the disaggregated level. On exports, the rating agency said that the exports will continue to see headwinds and these are expected to touch $345 billion in FY19.
The rating agency also expects the average retail inflation at 4.6 percent and wholesale inflation at 4.1 percent in FY19. India Ratings is also not certain on crude oil prices to drop below $70 per barrel.
The capital expenditure by government is insufficient to revive capex cycle, the report said. On Current Account Deficit (CAD), the rating agency said that CAD may widen to 2.6 percent of GDP at $71.1 billion in FY19. A widening trade deficit will lead to higher CAD, the report said. The rupee may average 68.40 per dollar during FY19, India Ratings said.