The weight-loss drugs market is set to grow to around Rs 5,000 crore in India by 2030, up from Rs 1,000 crore at present, said a report by CareEdge Ratings. After the patent expiry of Novo Nordisk’s blockbuster drug Semaglutide in March this year, the prices of these drugs would likely come down in a phased manner with around 50% reduction expected in FY2027 followed by 10-30% drop in FY28 on account of intense competition.
50% Price Drop
The agency said that the recent free trade agreement (FTA) between India and Europe will also result in price reductions in the glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) market.
“From a therapeutic standpoint, nearly 60-70% of demand is estimated to be driven by type-2 diabetes treatment, with the balance attributable to weight loss applications. Supported by increased marketing efforts, price rationalisation and a growing patient pool, drug penetration is expected to rise to around 1% by 2030,” CareEdge report said.
Even though the growth is going to be substantial, the generics players are likely to face plenty of challenges, including probable patent litigations, complex manufacturing processes and expansion, lack of long-term empirical data to assuage safety concerns and increase in competition.
“The initial wave of generic GLP 1 launches in India is expected to be led by the top 5-6 companies entering the market in March 26. Intense competition and aggressive price cuts by innovator companies are likely to squeeze margins for generic players. Furthermore, innovator led patent protection measures and entry barriers due to complex manufacturing processes remain key challenges that generic manufacturers need to navigate carefully,” said Samyuktha R., Assistant Director at CareEdge Ratings.
Generic Competition
Despite the growing popularity of GLP-1 drugs, concerns around their safety remain. For instance, the drugs has been approved for the treatment of obesity and type 2 diabetes, however, it is being prescribed off-label for cosmetic weight management. This use falls outside the scope of approved indications and raises important concerns regarding both clinical appropriateness and long-term safety.
The report added that seven domestic drugmakers have already got approved generic version in place that will be launched immediately after the patent expiry. This includes Sun Pharma, Dr Reddy’s Labs, Zydus Lifesciences, Natco Pharma and Alkem Laboratories. Nine companies such as Cipla, Lupin, Biocon and Intas have products in the pipeline.
“Sales of these drugs have grown exponentially, increasing over 10x between CY20 and CY25, with demand consistently outstripping supply due to challenges in rapidly scaling production capacity. These supply constraints also partly explain the delayed entry of innovator companies into markets such as India, as efforts were largely focused on serving developed markets where these therapies command premium pricing,” the agency said.