India could again see Venezuelan crude flows in the range of 100,000–150,000 barrels per day, even as Russian crude imports remain lower and Middle Eastern grades continue to fill supply gaps, according to industry experts speaking on the sidelines of India Energy Week 2026.
India’s crude sourcing strategy is undergoing recalibration as sanctions-related disruptions, compliance pressures and shifting price dynamics alter trade flows. Russian crude imports into India have declined from 1.6–1.8 million barrels per day in the first half of 2025 to around 1 million barrels per day currently, with refiners increasingly cautious in lifting cargoes, experts said.
“Trade patterns are already shifting,” said Premasish Das, Head of Oil Markets and Downstream Research – Asia, Middle East, Africa and Eurasia, S&P Global Energy. “China has been the main buyer in recent years, but that may not hold in 2026. With the U.S. showing interest in processing more Venezuelan barrels and sanctions potentially easing, the discounts that made these crudes attractive to Chinese teapots are likely to narrow.”
Das said once Venezuelan barrels begin pricing closer to fair value, Chinese independent refiners could reduce intake due to their sensitivity to price changes. “Even without India in the picture, I’d expect exports of Venezuelan crude to China to soften,” he said, adding that some flows would still continue for loan repayment obligations.
Scope for Venezuelan barrels, but economics key
Against this backdrop, India could again emerge as a destination for Venezuelan crude, subject to availability and pricing. “The Indian refining system has a history of running Venezuelan grades and technically there is no barrier to doing so if availability improves and the economics work,” Das said.
However, he cautioned that actual flows would depend on multiple variables, including Venezuela’s production recovery, U.S. demand, Chinese obligations and the sanctions landscape. “If production simply gets back to pre-blockade levels, India could see something in the 100,000–150,000 b/d range, assuming U.S. consumption of about 500,000–550,000 b/d and Chinese obligation of about 80,000 b/d,” he said.
Das added that higher output following upgrader repairs and improved diluent supply could increase availability, though some volumes may be balanced through crude swaps for U.S. refiners. “On balance, replacing discounted Russian crude with normally priced Venezuelan supply will not be favourable from a cost standpoint,” he said.
On ONGC’s exposure, Das noted that volumes remain limited. ONGC’s reported production from Venezuela in FY 2024–25 stood at 1,870 b/d from San Cristóbal and 970 b/d from Carabobo-1, contributing less than 1% of ONGC’s international output. “We do not think these volumes merit the creation of an ‘equity-oil trade corridor’,” he said.
Russian crude down, Middle East fills the gap
According to Pulkit Agarwal, Head of India Content, S&P Global Energy, sanctions in 2025 led to sharp disruptions in Russian flows to India. “Import from Russia fell from 1.6–1.8 mbpd in H1 2025 to around 1 mbpd currently,” Agarwal said.
He said refiners such as Reliance, along with a few others, have largely stayed away from Russian crude, while PSU refiners are gradually returning. “The shortfall in Russian crude in the Indian system is largely met through Middle Eastern grades as well as opportunistic U.S. flows during open arbitrage windows,” Agarwal said.
Despite these shifts, India’s oil demand growth remains linked to expanding refining capacity and downstream demand. Agarwal pointed to upcoming projects including the HPCL Barmer refinery (180 kbpd) and the NRL refinery expansion (120 kbpd), both expected to be commissioned in 2026.
India’s refining capacity is projected to expand by 20% by 2028 to around 300 MMTPA, or nearly 6 mbpd.
Gas, biofuels and transition fuels in focus
India continues to target 15% gas in the energy mix by 2030, up from around 6% currently, though progress has been uneven. Agarwal said gas demand growth remained muted in 2025 due to favourable weather and price sensitivity among industrial consumers.
However, the city gas distribution (CGD) segment continues to lead demand growth. “CGD consumption continues to grow by 8.8%, taking its share of overall gas demand to 23% from 20% last year,” Agarwal said. India has nearly tripled automotive CNG stations and doubled PNG connections over the past five years.
India achieved 20% ethanol blending in gasoline in 2025, resulting in foreign exchange savings of $19.3 billion and direct payments of over $15 billion to farmers over the past decade. Feedstock diversification has continued, with corn accounting for 46% of ethanol feedstock, followed by rice, sugarcane and damaged foodgrains.
Indian refiners IOCL and HPCL have modified refinery units at Panipat and Visag, respectively, to co-process used cooking oil with distillate streams for sustainable aviation fuel blends. These efforts support India’s 1% SAF blending mandate for international flights by 2027.
Hydrogen, renewables and storage
India also advanced its green hydrogen and ammonia plans in 2025 by awarding long-term tenders for supply to refineries and fertiliser plants. According to Agarwal, refiners awarded 20,000 tonnes per annum of green hydrogen, while the fertiliser sector awarded 724,000 tonnes per annum of green ammonia through 13 tenders.
India added 35 GW of solar capacity in 2025, increasing solar generation capacity by 36%. During the year, installed non-fossil capacity crossed 50%, although fossil fuels continue to account for over 70% of actual power generation.
India remains a key data centre growth market, with power consumption projected to grow nearly five-fold by 2030, making it the second-largest data centre market in Asia-Pacific, Agarwal said.