As India moves to scale down Russian crude purchases under mounting pressure from US President Donald Trump, one refinery has found itself at the centre of an uncomfortable geopolitical spotlight: Nayara Energy’s Vadinar complex in Gujarat.
Fresh refinery-level data show that while state-run and private refiners have sharply reduced spot purchases of Russian oil, Nayara continues to run almost entirely on Russian barrels — making it the single largest remaining conduit for Moscow’s crude into India.
According to analytics firm Kpler, Nayara imported over 36 million barrels of Russian crude between November 2025 and January 2026 — roughly 390,000–400,000 barrels per day (bpd). Russian inflows dipped in December but surged again in January, underscoring the refinery’s deep dependence on Urals-grade crude.
The data come days after Trump signed an executive order asserting that “India has committed to stop directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil”, warning that tariffs on Indian goods could be raised if purchases resume.
While New Delhi has confirmed a broader interim trade framework with Washington, it has not spelt out any explicit crude commitments. The ministry of external affairs reiterated that India’s energy security remains its “supreme priority” and that sourcing decisions are driven by commercial considerations.
PSUs retreat, Nayara stands alone
Overall Russian crude flows into India are already declining. Kpler data show imports easing to around 1.2 million bpd in January, down sharply from peaks near 2 million bpd last year after Washington tightened sanctions on Russian producers.
Most state-run refiners have paused fresh spot buying following the US order, with market participants expecting India’s Russian intake to roughly halve to 400,000–500,000 bpd once existing cargoes unwind.
That residual volume is expected to be largely accounted for by Nayara.
Industry officials say the refinery is structurally locked into Russian crude. The 20 million tonne per annum Vadinar plant is optimised for heavy, high-sulphur grades such as Urals. Switching to lighter Middle Eastern or US grades would require costly blending adjustments, logistics realignment and could materially raise input costs.
“Nayara has very limited flexibility in the near term,” said a refining executive. “There is no formal government directive to halt Russian intake, but commercially and technically, alternatives are not straightforward.”
The challenge is compounded by ownership. Nayara is majority-owned by Russia’s Rosneft, making it more vulnerable to sanctions-related hurdles in shipping, insurance and trade finance. Following successive EU and UK sanctions packages, securing alternative crude at scale has become increasingly complex.
Nikhil Dubey, senior refining analyst at Kpler, said the refinery’s near-term flexibility is minimal. “Following the EU’s 18th sanctions package and corresponding UK measures, Nayara faces increasing constraints in securing shipping, insurance, and financing,” Dubey said. “These barriers make sourcing alternative grades at scale extremely difficult. Russian crude is therefore expected to remain their primary feedstock.”
Geopolitics meets refinery economics
The tightening environment has revived speculation about a potential change in ownership of the Vadinar refinery — India’s second-largest single-site processing complex. But US pressure and sanctions exposure complicate any transaction.
ICRA’s Prashant Vasisht said a calibrated transition was more realistic than a sudden cut-off. “Complex refineries need heavy crude. An abrupt shift would disrupt operations and raise input costs materially,” Vasisht said. “A phased transition using alternative heavy grades would be the practical path if diversification is pursued.”
Queries sent to Nayara Energy remained unanswered at press time.
For India, the economics are not trivial. Russian crude has offered steep discounts since the Ukraine war, with analysts estimating annual savings of $3–4 billion compared with market-priced alternatives.
Cargoes have already been booked through March and parts of April, making immediate cancellations commercially unviable. Even as India’s broader crude basket rotates back toward the Middle East and the US, Nayara’s configuration — and ownership — leave it exposed.
In the evolving India–US trade equation, the Vadinar refinery has thus become the most visible pressure point — where geopolitics, sanctions and refinery economics collide.