All eyes are now on the Q3 GDP print, likely later this week. The recent US Supreme Court ruling and US President’s warning thereafter about a 15% global tariff have no doubt created significant chaos across global trade circles. The impact of the tariff on the growth outlook is also something that the street is watching out keenly.
The uncertainties among the market and importers has renewed after US Supreme Court has struck down the US President’s authority to impose import tariffs using emergency powers. Analysts noted that this is a primarily positive development for India, given that the tariff amount is less than earlier negotiations. However, they are worried that the US may come up with sector-wise long term tariff.
Lower US tariffs improve India’s trade position: Elara Capital
India was earlier supposed to face 18% tariff will and now will pay 10% tariff on nearly 60% of its exports to the US. This Elara Capital believes is primarily positive for India. “Our calculation indicates that the policy implied an effective tariff rate on India is 9.1% versus 13.7% following the first-week February 2026 trade deal, and peak rate of 32.7% in CY25.”
They pointed out that, India will have a competitive edge among Asian peers as the estimated tariff of 9.1% is lower than or comparable to peers such as Vietnam, Thailand, Bangladesh and Cambodia.
Around 34.2% of India’s exports to the US remain exempt from any tariffs even after the latest changes.
These exempt exports are estimated to be equal to nearly 0.7% of India’s nominal GDP, offering further cushion to Indian exporters.
Importers may frontload shipments in H1 of 2026 CY26
Elara Capital said that importers may utilise this time frame of approx 5 months to advance spending and imports in the first half of CY26 to benefit from the current 10% tariff rate, followed by a wait-and-watch approach in the second half.
This is because, Elara Capital noted that, the new 10% tariff under Section 122 can only remain in place for 150 days. After that, the key questions will be which tariffs continue and at what rates.
It expects the administrations to use this time frame to complete investigations and impose more tariff under Section 232 for pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, Section 201 for solar products and large residential washers, and Section 301 for digital services taxes, maritime and shipbuilding practices, and discrimination by e-commerce platforms.
“The developments flare up renewed uncertainties for global trade, and in our view tariffs are turning more sector specific than overall aggregated economy wide,” Elara Capital said.
“Tariffs applied under these sections are more durable, and come with no rate cap, except under Section 201,” Elara Capital added.
US SC curbs tariffs, but door remains open for new levies
SBI Research on the other hand, noted that the Supreme Court ruling has invalidated multiple tariff measures, including reciprocal tariffs and penalties linked to transshipment but several secondary tariffs tied to digital services taxes, Russian and Iranian oil, and Russia-related sanctions remain threatened and depend on future legislative action.
According to SBI Research, the US court has not ruled on all proposed tariff measures, leaving scope for further policy moves.
SBI Research also noted that the ruling does not affect sector-specific tariffs imposed under Section 232 of the US Trade Expansion Act, 1962 So, duties on steel, aluminium, automobiles and copper therefore continue to apply, keeping pressure on Indian companies and other global exporters.
Elara flags refund risk for US
Elara Capital also noted that Section 122 tariffs have clear limitations for the Trump administration, as it doesn’t expect the US Congress to approve an extension.
Elara Capital also said that after the US Supreme Court ruling, the US government may be forced to refund around $150–155 billion collected under the now-invalid IEEPA tariffs.
There is no official clarity yet on the refund process. If refunds materialise, the US fiscal deficit could widen by nearly 50 basis points as a percentage of GDP, Elara said.
Conclusion
Despite the immediate relief, analysts cautioned that uncertainty remains high. Markets are still unclear about which tariff regime will be in place after the 150-day Section 122 window ends and how aggressively the US will use other trade laws such as Sections 232, 201 and 301.
