Loud blasts were heard in Dubai and Doha for a second day on Sunday, and Oman was hit for the first time as retaliatory strikes on neighbouring Gulf states in response to US and Israeli strikes on Iran. As the conflict escalates, the world is watching the situation across West Asia, with a sense of apprehension, uncertainty and deep concerns about what’s next. Most global leaders
One of the biggest concerns at the moment is the possibility of regime change, after the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed by Israel and the United States, throwing the future of the Islamic Republic into doubt and raising the risk of regional instability.
Experts point to a greater concern amidst the ongoing conflict, loss of lives and a sense of fear overall
Regime change in Tehran
Reacting to the massive strikes across West Asia, strategic affairs expert Brahma Chellaney, in a social media post, stated that, ”Any military operation must serve a clear political objective. By jointly declaring war on Iran, the U.S. and Israel have embraced a maximalist goal: regime change in Tehran. A regime that believes it is fighting for its survival will resort to extreme measures to retaliate and exact vengeance. By elevating regime change as their stated objective—and with Trump urging Iranians to topple their rulers—Washington and Jerusalem have set the very metric by which this war ultimately will be judged.”
Israel’s regional hegemony a reality?
American economist Jeffrey Sachs, while discussing US/Israel policy on Iran on a US-based show Breaking Points (with hosts Krystal Ball & Saagar Enjeti) during their February 23, 2026 episode had said that,
“This has never been about nuclear weapons. This has been about Israel’s regional hegemony in the Middle East.This is the point. Why does it work for the government of Israel? It’s a little hard to understand. If there is such a war, it’s a war because Israel has told the United States what to do, and that raises a question.”
Will the US, Israel attacks spur regime change?
Deepak Shenoy, founder and CEO of Capitalmind pointed out, in a post on social media platform X, that “the stated goal seems to still be the elimination of missile or nuclear capability of Iran. I believe Iran will get defensive anti-missile support from Russia and/or China, for protection. Their years of oil revenues have enriched the regime, though the people of Iran aren’t too rich, which means the money has been used over decades building their defense (and offence) equipment. It will not be easy to destroy a lot of this in a short time, so perhaps this will last a while.”
“Will the US/Israel attacks spur regime change? My feeling is it will unite Iranians across the spectrum. There isn’t much love for the US inside Iran, and even less for Israel. They don’t really care about Iranians, for sure. So the Iranian on the street is going to support their regime on this, probably even more if there is a solid fight back by Iran. This has probably made Iran even stronger in resolve compared to earlier, and this time they weren’t at all the aggressor. So no matter what happens, at the end, there will be an even more hostile Iran (against Israel/US).
There is zero chance of a ground war succeeding against Iran, so this will be fought by missiles and drones. The collateral damage now will be on the US bases in the region, and we’ll probably see some interesting tactics and technology being used.” He explained the evolving dynamics further.
What’s the impact on India and global economy
Ultimately, the big question is how is it all going to impact India in particular and the world in general-
According to Deepak Shenoy, “Crude oil will spike, perhaps, as routing oil through the Strait of Hormuz is out, and ships have to encircle Africa. It will be a blow for India, as oil is our largest import.
Does India import a lot of oil from Iran? Data shows we did just $113 million worth of oil based products from Iran between April-Dec 2025. This is chicken feed. So we can re-route the sources quite easily.
Will this cause inflation? It could if retail fuel prices in India are increased. There is however scope to keep those prices constant for a while.
OIL/ONGC had some gas discoveries off Andaman last year, and I hope they accelerate their drilling to get a little less dependent on foreign sources.”
Globally, too, Shenoy sees the impact of the current conflict limited and restricted to the near term. He addressed fears about “Inflation in the US? If crude oil spikes, that’s going to be what spooks markets eventually.
None of the geopolitical events recently – India-Pak, US-Israel-Iran, Gaza, whatever – have resulted in the markets crashing. Maybe this one will, who knows, but still: don’t expect markets to react whichever way you think they will react.
The one thing that looks likely: Defence manufacturers, they will be back in favour. I don’t think I currently have any other visibly clear impact.”
Conclusion
For now it is a wait and watch for most, as the situation remains dynamic following the events across West Asia. Most political and economic observers raise concerns about sharp near-term price action. However fears of long-term impact are seen as limited at the moment.