The next spectrum auction is likely to see muted participation, with telecom operators together expected to spend only about Rs 83,500 crore against spectrum worth nearly Rs 2.19 lakh crore at reserve prices, according to an assessment based on operators’ current holdings, regulatory caps and network deployment needs. This means that barely 37–38% of the spectrum put on sale may find buyers, leaving a large portion unsold.
The estimate factors in spectrum that will be available following expiries as well as airwaves freed up from bankrupt operators, all of which the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai) has recommended be included in the auction.
Bharti Airtel is expected to be the biggest spender, with an estimated outlay of around Rs 62,000 crore across select sub-GHz and mid-band frequencies. The bulk of this would come from the 600 MHz band, where Bharti could spend about Rs 45,510 crore if it opts to acquire up to the regulatory cap of 15 MHz in circles where it lacks adequate low-band capacity. In the 900 MHz band, Bharti’s spending is estimated at Rs 2,132 crore, primarily to top up holdings to reach 10 or 15 MHz blocks in key circles. Additional expenditure of about Rs 5,695 crore is projected in the 1800 MHz band and around Rs 4,550 crore in the 2100 MHz band, largely to consolidate spectrum blocks rather than expand footprint.
600 MHz Strategy
Vodafone Idea’s participation is expected to be more limited, constrained by balance sheet pressures. Its total spend is estimated at about Rs 19,000 crore. This includes around Rs 11,550 crore in the 600 MHz band, where the operator is expected to buy only 10 MHz in select circles, and about Rs 2,191 crore in the 900 MHz band to shore up minimum holdings. Spending in mid-bands is projected at roughly Rs 2,656 crore in 1800 MHz and Rs 2,500 crore in 2100 MHz.
Reliance Jio is expected to be the most restrained bidder, with an estimated outlay of about Rs 6,765 crore, limited almost entirely to the 1800 MHz band. The operator is unlikely to bid in sub-GHz bands such as 600 MHz due to high reserve prices and a regulatory cap of 15 MHz, and has little incentive to add spectrum in bands like 2300 MHz, 2500 MHz or 3500 MHz where it already has substantial holdings.
“Even with optimistic assumptions on operator participation, the numbers suggest a structurally weak auction,” said telecom analyst Parag Kar. “Reserve prices, especially in low-frequency bands, remain misaligned with operators’ revenue potential and balance sheet realities. That gap is now clearly visible in expected realisations,” Kar added.
Structurally Weak
A weighted analysis of post-auction spectrum holdings on a pan-India basis suggests that Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio would each end up with roughly similar overall spectrum shares of about 39%, while Vodafone Idea would trail at around 22%. However, the distribution across bands could still affect competitive dynamics.
Kar said that Bharti’s potential acquisition of 600 MHz spectrum could give it an advantage in low-band 5G coverage. “Jio’s low-band holdings are split between 700 MHz for 5G and 800 MHz largely used for 4G. These cannot be aggregated without compromising coverage, which limits flexibility. In contrast, a contiguous 15 MHz block in 600 MHz could strengthen Bharti’s coverage-led 5G strategy in certain circles,” he said.
The analysis also suggests that spectrum caps proposed by the department of telecommunications and Trai are unlikely to act as a binding constraint in this auction, as all operators remain comfortably within prescribed limits.
This would not be the first time that a large chunk of spectrum will remain unsold. In the March 2021 spectrum auction, nearly 63% of the spectrum remained unsold. The 2022 auction, which marked the launch of 5G services, was an exception, with operators acquiring around 71% of the spectrum on offer. Demand weakened again in the most recent 2024 auction, where roughly 74% of the spectrum remained unsold. Taken together, the data shows that outside of the one-off 5G-led auction in 2022, a large share of spectrum placed on the block has struggled to find buyers.