Saudi Arabia has begun rerouting crude shipments to India via its Red Sea export hub at Yanbu as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz force Gulf producers to redraw supply routes, with several tankers already heading to Indian ports.
The shift reflects contingency planning by the world’s largest oil exporter as tensions in West Asia threaten maritime traffic through the strategic Hormuz chokepoint, through which a significant portion of global oil trade typically passes.
According to Kpler ship-tracking data, four Saudi crude tankers carrying about 6 million barrels of oil are currently on their way to India, with more cargoes expected later this month.
What do analysts say?
“Saudi crude loading from ports on the Kingdom’s west coast has increased in recent weeks. Currently, four crude tankers bound for India, carrying approximately 6 million barrels of crude, are en route and are expected to discharge their cargo at Indian ports in the coming week. Additionally, another 9–10 million barrels are expected to arrive in India over the remainder of the month,” said Nikhil Dubey, senior refining analyst at Kpler.
The change in shipping routes comes after disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Saudi Arabia to rely more heavily on infrastructure that bypasses the waterway.
“Following the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has been loading more cargoes from its west coast ports, rerouting crude through the East–West Pipeline across the kingdom. Traditionally, Saudi crude exports to India were shipped from the east coast terminals, passing through the Strait of Hormuz before reaching Indian refiners,” Dubey said.
The East–West pipeline allows Saudi Arabia to move crude from its eastern oil fields to the Red Sea coast, enabling exports through Yanbu without transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Evolving trade flows
The evolving trade flows come as Indian refiners also weigh opportunities to absorb additional Russian crude that is currently stranded at sea.
According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), about 6.9 million tonnes of Russian oil — equivalent to 50.57 million barrels and valued at €2.3 billion ($2.99 billion) — is currently floating on the water, creating opportunities for buyers as supply chains shift following the Hormuz disruption and a temporary US waiver for Russian barrels.
India could potentially absorb a significant share of these cargoes, analysts say.
At its peak in mid-2024, India’s imports of Russian crude exceeded 2 million barrels per day, making Moscow the country’s largest supplier. However, purchases had fallen to around 1.06 million barrels per day by February 2026, according to analytics firm Kpler, after India moderated buying under pressure from Washington.
Analysts expect volumes to rebound as stranded cargoes seek buyers and policy conditions ease.
“Russian barrels bound for India. Post-US waiver, Indian refiners are ramping up fast, about 20 million barrels already delivered, with another around 25–30 million on the way,” Dubey said.
For India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, the reconfiguration of supply routes underscores how refiners are adjusting procurement strategies as geopolitical tensions reshape global crude flows.
With shipments from the Gulf being rerouted and Russian cargoes re-entering the market, analysts say Indian refiners are likely to remain key buyers in a rapidly shifting global oil trade landscape.