India’s Russian crude imports have fallen sharply in August just as Moscow’s production and export constraints are deepening, threatening to erode a key supply cushion for domestic refiners at a time when the country’s crude acquisition cost is again moving higher.
Russian crude supplies to India averaged 1.9 million barrels per day (mbpd) during the first 15 days of August, down nearly 32% from a record 2.8 mbpd in July, according to Kpler. Imports had climbed from 1.6 mbpd in April to 1.9 mbpd in May, 2.7 mbpd in June and 2.8 mbpd in July before the latest decline.
“Russian crude imports are expected to ease in August from the highs seen in June and July, primarily due to planned turnarounds at MRPL and the Panipat refinery, compounded by disruptions from drone attacks on Russian oil terminals,” said Nikhil Dubey, lead analyst for oil markets at Kpler.
The fall has coincided with higher purchases from traditional West Asian suppliers. UAE crude deliveries stood at around 700,000 bpd in the first half of August, while Saudi Arabia supplied about 480,000 bpd, Kpler data showed.
For India, the supply squeeze comes alongside rising oil costs. The Indian crude basket averaged $88.62/bbl in August so far, up from $82.04 in July and $83.22 in June. It stood at $89.58/bbl on August 17.
At the same time, sour crude’s share in the Indian basket rose to 25.06% in August from 20.60% in July. With Russian supplies easing, replacement barrels could raise import costs and put pressure on refinery margins.
Brent crude futures were at $91.07/bbl, while US West Texas Intermediate stood at $84.99/bbl, adding to the pressure as refiners seek alternatives to lower Russian flows.
The emerging shift comes as Rystad Energy has cut its Russian crude production forecast by 90,000 bpd, with output now expected to average 8.95 mbpd in 2026 before declining further to around 8.6 mbpd in 2027.
“The increasing frequency and effectiveness of drone attacks on Russian oil and gas infrastructure is no longer affecting only refineries; it’s constraining the country’s upstream sector as well,” Daria Melnik, Vice President, Oil & Gas Research at Rystad Energy, said.
Russia’s refinery throughput is forecast to average around 4 mbpd between July and December, almost 30% below the 2016-2023 seasonal average of about 5.7 mbpd. Rystad expects the country to process nearly 1.4 mbpd less crude in the second half of 2026 than historical seasonal patterns.
“Every barrel not processed by a refinery must either be exported, placed into storage or removed from production,” Melnik said. While Russia managed the imbalance in June, “July demonstrated that its export system cannot consistently handle the additional volumes,” she added.
The deterioration marks a reversal from earlier in the year, when refinery outages had released additional Russian crude into the export market. That flexibility is now diminishing as disruptions spread beyond refining and inventories approach levels where field-level production cuts become harder to avoid.
Rystad estimates Russia’s spare capacity at only 620,000 bpd in 2026, rising modestly to 700,000 bpd in 2027. Much of it is linked to ageing, high-water-cut wells, with prolonged shutdowns increasing the risk of lower productivity and permanent loss of some capacity.