Russia has earned an estimated €6 billion from fossil fuel exports in less than two weeks since the Iran conflict began on February 28, as global oil markets tightened and prices surged amid escalating geopolitical tensions, according to new analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) highlighted by Urgewald.
The data shows that Russia’s fossil fuel export revenues climbed to €510 million per day in the week following Israeli and US strikes on Iran, about 14% higher than the country’s daily average in February, underscoring how market volatility linked to the conflict is boosting earnings for major energy exporters.
The surge comes as the Trump administration weighs a broader rollback of sanctions on Russian oil amid turbulence in global energy markets triggered by the West Asia crisis.
Last week, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent issued a 30-day waiver allowing India to purchase Russian oil cargoes already at sea, calling it a temporary measure expected to have only a modest impact on Russia’s revenues.
However, analysts say any broader sanctions easing could significantly increase Moscow’s earnings by narrowing the discount at which Russian crude has been trading in global markets.
“Russia is already profiting from this geopolitical crisis. In the week after the strikes on Iran began, Russia’s fossil fuel export revenues rose to €510 million per day, 14 per cent higher than February’s average,” said Alexander Kirk, sanctions campaigner at Urgewald.
CREA’s analysis also suggests the scale of these revenues is significant in geopolitical terms. At €510 million per day, Russia’s fossil fuel earnings could theoretically finance the purchase of around 17,000 Shahed-136 attack drones every day, based on a commonly cited estimate of $35,000 per drone.
The findings come at a time when Western sanctions have already reshaped global oil trade by forcing Russia to sell crude at steep discounts and redirect shipments toward buyers such as India and China.
Urgewald warned that easing sanctions now could deliver Moscow a substantial financial windfall.
“In less than two weeks, Russia has earned an estimated €6 billion from fossil fuel exports, money that ultimately feeds the Kremlin’s war machine,” Kirk said.
“Easing sanctions now would not stabilise markets. What it would do is allow Russia to sell the same oil for a far better price. US sanctions have forced Russian crude to trade at a steep discount. A rollback closes that gap overnight and hands the Kremlin a revenue boost worth billions,” he added.
The debate comes as energy markets remain volatile following the disruption of supply routes in the Middle East. International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol recently warned that returning to Russian energy supplies would be “economically and politically wrong,” even amid the current turbulence in global LNG markets.
Analysts say the spike in Russia’s fossil fuel earnings highlights how geopolitical crises can rapidly reshape energy flows and strengthen the financial position of major exporters.