India’s renewable energy boom is running into a major infrastructure constraint, with more than 35 gigawatts (GW) of renewable capacity likely to face power curtailment risk by FY27 as transmission expansion struggles to keep pace with rapid solar and wind additions.
A Crisil Ratings assessment has flagged that the widening mismatch between generation capacity and grid evacuation infrastructure could leave 35-37 GW of renewable energy projects exposed to curtailment, particularly those without long-term grid access.
Crisil projects that approximately 20 GW of renewable capacity to be commissioned and start on temporary general network access (TGNA) in FY27. “This, with existing capacity with TGNA of approximately 17 GW as on February 2026… may result in RE capacity exposed to the risk of curtailment reaching 35-37 GW in FY27,” said Ankit Hakhu, director, Crisil Ratings.
Rapid expansion of India’s renewable sector
India’s renewable sector has expanded rapidly over the past few years, with installed solar and wind capacity touching around 200 GW as of February 2026. However, the pace of transmission infrastructure development has lagged behind the surge in project commissioning, raising the risk that surplus generation — particularly solar power during daytime — may not find adequate grid evacuation capacity.
The vulnerability is the highest for projects operating under TGNA. Unlike long-term general network access (LTGNA), which offers dedicated transmission infrastructure and stronger scheduling rights, TGNA provides only time-bound access to the inter-state transmission system. As a result, when transmission capacity is constrained, projects with LTGNA are prioritised for evacuation, while TGNA projects face a higher likelihood of curtailment.
The trend is already visible in the sector. According to the analysis, TGNA-based projects accounted for nearly 80% of total renewable curtailment in India between April and December 2025, while about 39% of TGNA capacity was curtailed between November 2025 and February 2026.
Pronounced problem in Rajasthan and Gujarat
The problem has been particularly pronounced in Rajasthan and Gujarat, which together account for around 45% of India’s renewable generation capacity. In these states, 13-14 GW of TGNA-based projects experienced curtailment levels of up to 50%, reflecting the growing mismatch between renewable generation growth and transmission availability.
Sustained curtailment could weigh on project economics and credit metrics. The report estimates that an average curtailment of 50% for a period of 12 months could reduce project debt service coverage ratios (DSCR) by up to 10 basis points and equity internal rate of return (IRR) by up to 150 basis points.
Despite the risks, analysts say the immediate credit impact may remain limited due to the financial structure of many renewable projects. “Three factors can limit the impact of curtailment on credit quality of RE projects in the near term,” said Ankush Tyagi, associate director, Crisil Ratings.
Many TGNA-based projects are recently commissioned or partially operational and are still in the loan moratorium phase, while sponsor support commitments and liquidity buffers such as debt service reserve accounts help mitigate near-term interest servicing risks, he said.
Additionally, several projects currently operating under TGNA are expected to transition to long-term grid access within the next 10-12 months, as new transmission infrastructure comes online. Policy interventions and technological solutions are also being explored to address grid congestion over the medium term, according to the analysis.
Measures such as hour-split grid access, which allows solar projects to use transmission capacity during solar hours while freeing capacity for wind and storage projects at other times, could improve utilisation of the network. The increasing adoption of battery energy storage systems is also expected to play a role by storing surplus daytime solar generation for use during peak demand periods.
The findings highlight a growing structural challenge for the country’s clean energy push — ensuring that transmission infrastructure keeps pace with India’s accelerating renewable energy capacity additions.