Quick commerce is set to become a major engine of India’s e-commerce growth, contributing 45-50% of incremental e-retail growth over the next five years as the segment value expands to an estimated $65-70 billion by 2030, according to a report by research consultancy Infisum. The country’s dark store network is also projected to nearly triple from 2,525 facilities in 2025 to around 7,500 by 2030.
“Quick commerce is permanent infrastructure, not a trend. Valued at $65-70 billion by 2030, it will drive 45-50% of incremental e-retail growth,” said Badri Narayanan Gopalakrishnan, fellow, Niti Aayog. Amazon Now and Flipkart Minutes are positioned to become preferred players, with Amazon likely gaining an advantage by leveraging its existing consumer base and trust, he added.
Shift Toward Sustainable
The broader e-commerce market is projected to nearly triple from $125 billion in 2024 to $345 billion by 2030. The market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.4%, driven by rising disposable incomes, wider internet penetration and faster digital adoption. Quick commerce is also moving beyond its earlier customer-acquisition-led phase, with companies increasingly focusing on sustainable unit economics and investments in delivery and fulfillment infrastructure. Blinkit remains the market leader with a 44% share in FY26, followed by Zepto 25% and Swiggy Instamart 20%, the report added.
Traditional business-to-consumer (B2C) e-commerce is expected to remain the largest segment, accounting for nearly two-thirds of total e-retail gross merchandise value by 2030.
Overall, e-commerce is projected to account for 10-12% of India’s retail spending and contribute 2.5% to GDP by the end of the decade, while the number of online shoppers is expected to reach 420-440 million.
The report also points to a shift in where India’s next wave of digital demand will come from. Gen Z already accounts for nearly one-third of online shoppers and is expected to become the country’s largest digital spending cohort by 2030. Meanwhile, 66% of new D2C orders originate from Tier II and Tier III cities, highlighting the growing importance of smaller markets.
Nearly 150 million new online shoppers are expected to enter India’s digital economy by 2030. This is likely to push demand for vernacular content, creator led commerce and more localised shopping experiences, the report said.
Technology is expected to further reshape the sector, with AI and machine learning projected to improve retail productivity by 35-37% by 2030. Conversational commerce, AI-powered shopping assistants, virtual try-ons, personalised recommendations and voice enabled shopping are expected to increasingly influence how consumers discover and buy products.
Despite the strong growth outlook, the report flagged fraud, product returns, regulatory changes and profitability pressures as key challenges for e-commerce companies. It said opportunities in quick commerce, D2C, social commerce, AI-led retail and cross-border exports could nevertheless outweigh these pressures as the market expands.