India’s telecom operators are expected to report another quarter of steady operating performance for the three months ended June, with customer premiumisation continuing to drive average revenue per user (Arpu) despite the absence of fresh tariff hikes, analysts said.
Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio are expected to post healthy subscriber additions, modest expansion in operating margins and continued momentum in home broadband. Markets will also watch out for management commentary on the timing of the next tariff hike, expected in the coming months, as well as Vodafone Idea’s fund-raising plans and pace of network expansion.
Industry-wide, analysts expect wireless Arpu to improve around 1.5-2% sequentially, helped by one additional day in the quarter and continued customer upgrades to higher-value plans. On a year-on-year basis, Arpu growth is expected to remain healthy despite the absence of tariff hikes, reflecting the ongoing shift towards premium plans and higher data usage.
Airtel is expected to retain its leadership on value metrics, with the Street estimating its consolidated revenue at Rs 56,902 crore, Ebitda at Rs 32,350 crore and net profit at Rs 8,426 crore for the June quarter.
“Bharti’s (Airtel’s) ARPU may grow 4.8% YoY to Rs 262, largely driven by premiumisation benefits like upgrades from 2G to 4G/5G and 4G to 5G, higher postpaid net adds and data monetisation. It may rise 2% QoQ due to one more day in Q1FY27,” analysts from ICICI Securities said.
Airtel is expected to show subscriber additions of 3-5 million for the quarter.
Airtel Commands Profitability
While Airtel is expected to lead on profitability metrics such as Arpu and margins, Reliance Jio is likely to continue dominating on subscriber additions.
“We estimate Jio Platform’s (to report) net additions of around 8 million subscribers in the quarter, with the total subscriber base likely rising to 532.4 million from 524.4 million at the end of 4QFY26,” analysts from Nomura said.
The telecom company’s Arpu is likely to rise Rs 2-3 during the quarter to Rs 216-217, supported by customer upgrades and higher data consumption.
Vodafone Idea Focuses
For Vodafone Idea, the focus is expected to remain on operational recovery and management commentary, rather than headline earnings. Analysts estimate consolidated revenue of Rs 11,511 crore, Ebitda of Rs 4,956 crore and a net loss of Rs 5,351 crore for the quarter.
“Vodafone Idea’s revenue, reported EBITDA and cash EBITDA are expected to grow by 1.8%, 1.7% and 3.5% QoQ respectively as ARPU (including machine -to-machine) is likely to improve 1.9% QoQ to Rs 177, also aided by net subscriber (including M2M) gain of 0.3 million and 0.5 million MBB (mobile broadband) subscriber addition,” analysts from JM Financial said.
Analysts said updates on Vodafone Idea’s debt and equity fund-raising plans, seen as critical to accelerating capital expenditure and strengthening network competitiveness, will be closely watched.