For months, India had been carefully reducing its dependence on Russian oil amid the Trump tariff threat and pending US trade deal. By January 2026, Russian oil made up less than 20% of India’s imports, the lowest in nearly four years.
In February, Russia remained India’s top crude supplier, while Saudi Arabia became the second-largest supplier by increasing its deliveries to over 1 million barrels a day (mbd), up from 770,000 barrels in January. This marked Saudi Arabia’s highest monthly crude export to India in nearly six years.
But as the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most vital energy artery, clutches in a de facto chokehold, that script is likely to flip again. According to Kpler, India is thinking about buying Russian crude oil again after the war in Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory strikes disrupted oil shipments from the Middle East.
The crisis is the result of joint US-Israeli airstrikes — Operation Epic Fury — which hit Iran’s leadership, nuclear sites, and military infrastructure. In response to the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, the IRGC launched missile and drone attacks across the region, hitting US bases and key infrastructure in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain.
On March 2, 2026, a senior official of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said the Strait of Hormuz was closed and warned that if any ship tried to go through it, Iranian forces would set it on fire.
India eyes return to Russian Oil as Middle East crisis hits supply
Around 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels per day of India’s crude imports, nearly half of the country’s total oil imports, usually pass through the Strait of Hormuz. These shipments mostly come from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait. India, the world’s third-largest crude consumer, depends on imports for over 88% of its oil needs. Most of the country’s gas consumption is also met through imports, and supplies from West Asia, moving through the Strait.
The Strait of Hormuz handles about one-fifth of global oil consumption and global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade.
According to trade sources, cited by The Indian Express, Russian crude is still available in the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea, including volumes held in floating storage. This stockpile grew partly because India had reduced its Russian oil imports in recent months. Industry estimates suggest about 10 million barrels of Russian crude are currently sitting in Asian waters.
In February, India imported about 1.1 million barrels per day of Russian crude, almost half of the 2025 peak of over 2 million bpd. Last year, shipments to Indian ports averaged 1.7 million bpd, but in February this fell to 0.7 million bpd, according to tanker data from commodity analytics firm Kpler.
“Should Middle Eastern inflows tighten, Indian refiners could pivot back toward Russian grades relatively quickly,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst at Kpler.
India’s fuel safety net
Indian refiners currently have more than ten days of crude in storage, along with about a week’s worth of fuel stocks. To manage potential shortfalls, India could tap these reserves, boost spot purchases from regions outside Hormuz, and strengthen contracts with alternative suppliers like the US, West Africa, and Latin America. In the near term, Russian crude already in the region could be a critical stopgap.
According to Kpler, “India faces the most acute near-term exposure and is likely to pivot towards Russian crude immediately, given proximity and established logistics”
The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas (MoPNG) posted on the social media platform X that it is monitoring the situation. “In view of ongoing geopolitical developments in the Middle East, the Minister of Petroleum & Natural Gas reviewed the supply situation for crude oil, LPG, and other petroleum products with senior officials from the Ministry and PSUs. We are continuously monitoring the evolving situation, and all necessary steps will be taken to ensure availability and affordability of major petroleum products in the country,” the ministry said.
Rising costs and economic pressure
Returning to Russian oil isn’t just about getting the barrels, prices matter too. Brent crude has climbed toward $85–$90 per barrel, which is pushing India’s import bill higher. While crude oil can be swapped, other products like LPG, which heavily rely on the Strait of Hormuz, have no easy alternative. This means everyday energy for Indian households could face strain, especially cooking gas, which is crucial for millions.
LPG imports are India’s “bigger vulnerability,” Ritolia noted, as the country imports 80–85% of its LPG from Gulf suppliers, almost entirely via Hormuz. Unlike crude, India does not have strategic LPG reserves of comparable scale, making LPG supplies more sensitive to disruptions.