Reliance Jio’s average revenue per user (ARPU) growth is expected to remain modest in the near term as the telecom operator is unlikely to raise tariffs until after the proposed listing of Jio Platforms, analysts said. While subscriber additions continue at a steady pace, the absence of a near-term price hike means revenue growth will largely be driven by higher usage, customer upgrades and expansion in home broadband and fixed wireless access (FWA).
Management commentary during the quarter indicated that the Jio Platforms initial public offering remains linked to regulatory approvals rather than business readiness. The company is awaiting clarity from the ministry of finance on revised listing norms that would allow large companies to go public with a smaller issue size. Until that framework is notified, the IPO timeline remains uncertain, though the company has indicated June 2026 as its target window.
Delayed Tariff Hikes
This has led analysts to push out their expectations of tariff hikes. IIFL Securities said its channel checks suggest price increases are likely only after the Jio Platforms IPO, adding that upcoming state elections in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu in April–May 2026 could also weigh on near-term tariff action. ICICI Securities, in a note, said management did not indicate any urgency to raise mobile tariffs, citing satisfactory growth driven by home broadband and enterprise services.
As a result, Arpu growth in the coming quarters is expected to rely more on mix improvement and higher consumption rather than pricing. Analysts said that while this will support steady growth, it is unlikely to lead to sharp upgrades in Arpu without tariff intervention.
Capital expenditure trends also reflect this operating approach. Incremental investments are increasingly being directed towards home broadband, particularly FWA, rather than large-scale network expansion. With the bulk of the 5G rollout already completed, spending is now focused on improving last-mile connectivity and expanding household coverage, where returns are seen as more predictable.
FWA Growth Drivers
FWA continued to be a key growth driver during the December quarter. Jio added around 2 million FWA subscribers, taking its total base to over 11 million. The segment now accounts for a sizeable share of incremental home broadband additions and has helped take Jio’s total home subscriber base beyond 25 million. Analysts said that FWA users typically generate higher data consumption than mobile-only customers, supporting usage-led revenue growth.
Operationally, this translated into steady performance during the quarter. Revenue growth remained volume-led, supported by subscriber additions and rising data usage, while Arpu expansion stayed modest. Ebitda improved sequentially, with margins broadly stable despite higher access charges, selling and distribution costs and employee expenses. These pressures were partly offset by scale benefits and ongoing cost efficiencies.