India’s 5G smartphone base is projected to expand nearly 80% to about 750 million by FY28, according to a report by CLSA, underscoring the rapid shift toward next-generation mobile devices in the country. In CY25, 5G handset shipments rose 14% year-on-year to 137 million even as overall smartphone shipments grew only 0.5%.

“India has 415m 5G smartphones base which will expand 80% to 750 million by FY28. Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel with leading 5G networks will gain in this surge, while India’s smartphones base will expand by (a) lower 25% to 885 million by March 28 calendar,” analysts from CLSA outlined. 

ALSO READ

5G Dominance

Recent shipment trends reflect both seasonality and evolving consumer demand. In 3QFY26, India’s mobile handset shipments — including smartphones and feature phones — declined 27% quarter-on-quarter and 10% year-on-year to 44 million units, largely due to post-festive inventory normalisation and cautious consumer spending.

Within this, smartphone shipments fell 29% sequentially and 5% year-on-year to 34 million units. However, 5G devices continued to dominate the market. Shipments of 5G smartphones stood at 31 million units during the quarter, broadly flat on a year-on-year basis but accounting for 91% of total smartphone shipments. The share of 5G devices in smartphone shipments has increased by about five percentage points over the past year.

Premium Shift

The report also highlighted a gradual shift toward higher-end smartphones. Devices priced above $300 accounted for 26% of smartphone shipments, up one percentage point year-on-year, reflecting increased availability of premium models and a rising mix of 5G-enabled devices.

ALSO READ

At the same time, feature phone volumes continue to decline sharply. Feature phone shipments fell 16% quarter-on-quarter and 23% year-on-year to 10 million units in 3QFY26. Shipments of 4G feature phones dropped even more sharply, declining 35% sequentially and 55% year-on-year to 1.3 million units. The report noted that 4G feature phone shipments have fallen about 94% from their peak of 21 million units.

“Jio and Airtel should gain from 5G smartphones surge and from tariff hikes led ARPU (average revenue per user) growth driving India mobile sector revenue to Rs 3.7 trillion (lakh crore) or $42bn by Mar-28,” analysts said.