Indian smartphone market faces tougher H2 as prices rise

Earlier, projections from Counterpoint also echoed the same trend. It estimated India’s smartphone market to decline 13% in 2026, after shipments fell 10% in the June quarter, the biggest decline for a June quarter in six years. Counterpoint said memory prices had risen nearly four times since September 2025 and that smartphone prices were up around 15% by the end of Q2. It highlighted affordability to be the biggest challenge through the rest of the year.

IDC’s Q2 numbers show how the market is absorbing that price pressure. Shipments fell 11.1% year-on-year to 33.2 million units, taking first-half shipments down 7.9% to 64.2 million, the lowest first-half volume in five years. Yet market value grew 3.6% in the first half, as higher prices partly offset the fall in volumes.

The sharpest impact is being felt by Chinese smartphone brands, which have traditionally relied more heavily on lower-priced devices. Shipments of smartphone brand iQOO dropped a massive 61% in Q2, while realme fell 14.2%, vivo 13.9%, Poco 12.3%, Xiaomi 10%, Oppo 8.5% and OnePlus 2.5%. IDC said brands associated to low-end volume were being hit hardest as higher memory costs made it difficult to maintain both affordability and margins.

Amongst all brands in India, Vivo remained the market leader with an 18.4% share despite the decline, followed by Samsung at 16.4%, Oppo at 13.8%, Xiaomi at 9.7% and realme at 9.3%, for Q2.

The entry-level market has taken the biggest hit. Shipments of smartphones priced below $100 fell 74.3% in Q2, reducing the segment’s share to 4.5% from 15.6%. IDC said sustaining profitability in the segment had become increasingly difficult, leading to fewer launches and thinner channel support.

There are, however, signs that consumers who continue to buy are moving up the price ladder. Shipments in the $400-600 segment grew 60.3% year-on-year, taking its share to 8.6% from 4.8%, during the quarter ending June,2026. The $100-200 mass-budget segment remained the largest at 46.8% of shipments and was broadly flat. The $200-400 segment fell 8.1%, while the $600-800 segment was flat and the $800-plus segment declined 5%.

This shift has helped Samsung and Apple hold ground. Samsung’s shipments rose 0.4% and its share increased to 16.4% from 14.5%. Apple’s shipments grew 0.7%, lifting its share to 8.5% from 7.5%. Apple also led the market by value with a 27% share, up 22.2% year-on-year.

Apple’s shipments were constrained by supply shortages for the iPhone 15, 16 and 17, although the iPhone 17 remained the top-shipped device in both Q1 and Q2. IDC expects Apple’s full-year shipments to decline by mid-single digits, as older iPhones become more expensive and attractive festive discounts remain limited.

The market is also losing one of its traditional demand drivers, discounts, said the report. Average selling prices rose 14.4% year-on-year to a record $315 in Q2, while brands and channels pulled back on discounts to protect margins. Online shipments fell 19.8%, reducing the channel’s share to 41.9% from 46.4%. Offline shipments fell only 3.6%, taking their share to 58.1%.

Brands are also turning back to 4G to keep lower-priced offerings viable. The share of 4G smartphones rose to 11.1% as entry-level 5G devices became more expensive. IDC described the increase as a supply-led stopgap, with consumers likely to face higher prices once the available 4G inventory runs out.

The festive season will therefore be an important test for the market. IDC expects financing, EMI and exchange schemes to play a bigger role as brands have less room to use price cuts to drive sales. A longer than expected memory shortage into 2027, further rupee weakness and consumers delaying purchases remain key risks, as per the reports.