Rising tensions between Iran and the United States are once again sending tremors through global oil markets, putting the Strait of Hormuz firmly back in focus — and sharply raising India’s exposure to one of the world’s most fragile energy arteries.
With geopolitical risks escalating across the Middle East, Indian refiners are quietly revisiting contingency sourcing strategies, including the possibility of turning back to higher volumes of Russia crude if Gulf supplies are disrupted.
India’s crude imports through the Strait of Hormuz have increased over the past two to three months as refiners trimmed purchases of Russian barrels following US and EU sanctions and turned back to Gulf producers.
Until October–November, around 40% of India’s total crude imports moved through the Strait of Hormuz. That share has since risen to roughly 50% over the past three months.
What happens in the event of any disruptions?
In the event of any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, Indian refiners may increase purchases of Russian crude to safeguard energy security and maintain supply stability,” said Nikhil Dubey, Senior Refining Analyst at Kpler.
Fresh shipping data highlights the speed at which India’s dependence on the narrow Gulf corridor has intensified. Crude volumes routed through Hormuz jumped to 2,911 thousand barrels per day in February 2026 (month till date), up from 1,860 thousand barrels per day in September 2025, marking a surge of over 56% in just five months.
As a result, more than 52% of India’s total monthly crude imports now pass through the strait, compared with roughly 40% through October and November.
India’s overall crude inflows climbed from 4,696 thousand barrels per day in September to 5,594 thousand barrels per day in February (month till date), with almost the entire incremental increase linked to Hormuz shipments — effectively tying more than half of the country’s oil lifeline to a single geopolitical flashpoint.
Rising exposure
The rising exposure comes as New Delhi has issued a fresh advisory asking all Indian citizens currently in Iran to leave the country by any available means, amid fears that the simmering standoff between Tehran and Washington could tip into a broader conflict.
The move has sharpened anxieties in energy circles about the vulnerability of shipping routes across the Gulf.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, carrying close to one-fifth of global seaborne crude trade every day. For India, the stakes are particularly high. The country imports nearly 85% of its oil needs, and the bulk of its top suppliers depend almost entirely on Hormuz to reach global markets.
Major producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait ship most of their crude exports through the strait — collectively forming the backbone of India’s import basket.
Globally, crude volumes moving through Hormuz rose to 14,825 thousand barrels per day in February (month till date), from 13,325 thousand barrels in September, underscoring how the world continues to lean heavily on the narrow passage even as geopolitical risk premiums climb.
Energy market participants warn that even a temporary disruption, whether from military escalation, shipping restrictions or heightened security threats could trigger immediate spikes in crude prices, freight rates and insurance premiums. For India, such a shock would translate into a sharply higher import bill, pressure on inflation and stress across refining margins.
Russian oil had earlier emerged as a crucial shock absorber for India after the Ukraine conflict reshaped global energy flows. Deep discounts on Russian barrels helped Indian refiners manage costs through 2023 and 2024, with Moscow briefly becoming India’s largest crude supplier.
That flow, however, slowed in late 2025 as fresh Western sanctions complicated financing, insurance and shipping logistics, prompting Indian buyers to pivot back towards Middle Eastern grades, a shift now clearly reflected in the sharp rise in Hormuz-linked imports.
With tensions in the Gulf once again escalating, analysts say Russian crude could re-emerge as a fallback option if supply risks intensify — not as a preferred source, but as a strategic buffer in crisis scenarios.
“Refiners will always prioritise operational continuity,” said an analyst on condition of anonymity. “If Hormuz faces disruption, every available sourcing route will be explored, including long-haul Russian barrels that bypass Middle East choke points.” The rapid increase in Hormuz’s share of India’s crude basket from around 40% to over 52% in just a single quarter, highlights how quickly geopolitical stress is reshaping energy trade flows.
As Washington and Tehran edge closer to confrontation, India’s oil security is once again being tested by forces beyond contracts and pricing.
The Strait of Hormuz, long regarded as the world’s most sensitive energy corridor, has now become the central pressure point in India’s crude strategy — one that could determine whether the country turns back towards Russian oil if Gulf supplies falter.
For the world’s third-largest crude consumer, the next flashpoint in the Middle East may not just move markets, it could redraw India’s energy map overnight.