With a monsoon rainfall deficit of over 43% as on Sunday, June 2026 is on course to be third driest of corresponding months since 1901 and the driest since 2009, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD) data.
During June 1–June 28, 2026, overall rainfall received across the country has been 85.2 millimeter (mm) against the benchmark long period average (LPA) of 149.8 mm, the met department stated. Last month, IMD forecast a ‘below normal’ rainfall at less than 92% of LPA in June.
According to the projection, overall rainfall in June is likely to be around 95 mm, making it driest since 2009, the year when monthly precipitation was only 85.7 mm, 47% below the benchmark.
Earlier, the country received scanty rainfalls in June 2014 (95.3 mm) and June 1905 (87.4 mm), when the monthly precipitation deficits were 44. The country usually gets around 16% of monsoon season (April-June) rainfall in June.
The progress of the southwest monsoon remained sluggish with cumulative rainfall being just over 43% of the benchmark. This is deep in the ‘deficient’ range. In terms of regional distribution, all regions show a serious rainfall deficiency: northwest (-29%), east/north-east (-43%), central India (-56%), and south peninsular (-31%).
Gujarat (80%), Chhattisgarh (-67%), Jharkhand (-67%), Maharashtra (-58%), Uttar Pradesh (-56%) Odisha (-54%), Karnataka (-42%), and Madhya Pradesh (-39%) have received hugely ‘deficient’ rainfall. However only a few states Rajasthan, West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh have received rainfall in the normal range this month so far.
“The monsoon is expected to strengthen until around July 5 as favourable large-scale weather patterns help it advance across more of central India,” Akshay Deoras, Senior Research Scientist at the Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK, told FE.
Deoras said current forecasts suggest the monsoon may weaken around the middle of July, raising the possibility that the second half of the month will be drier than the first half of the month across much of the country. Rains in July and August are crucial for boosting kharif and horticultural crops sowing, around 60% of monsoon rains occur during these two months.
According to IMD forecast on Sunday “conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand during next 2-3 days,”.
Last month, the met office had lowered its forecast of “below-normal” southwest monsoon rainfall for June-September this year to 90% of the benchmark implying that the coming monsoon could be the weakest since 2015.
The met department has noted that El Nino conditions are present over the equatorial Pacific ocean and are expected to strengthen further during southwest monsoon season.
A delayed monsoon could adversely impact kharif crop sowing, with 315 out of 724 districts possibly receiving deficient rains this season, Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said earlier this week. The centre has identified 111 districts as most vulnerable because they have less than 25% irrigation coverage.
Sowing activities have just commenced a week back after monsoon progress was revived by June 20 after a break of about two weeks.
Experts have stated that the delayed progression of the monsoon across western and central India is likely to postpone kharif sowing and transplanting, particularly for paddy, cotton, pulses and key horticultural crops such as onion and tomato. Around 10% of the total kharif area has been covered by crops including rice, pulses, oilseeds, sugarcane and cotton. The total acreage of all kharif crops remains higher at 11.79 million hectares as of June 22.